Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040253
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026
 
Satellite imagery suggests that Rachel's convective organization has 
improved since the previous advisory. The hurricane now shows a 
large, defined eye surrounded by a symmetric ring of deep convection 
with cloud top temperatures as cold as -80 C. The latest subjective 
Dvorak estimate from TAFB came in at T4.5/77 kt, closely mirroring 
many of the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates that range from 
70 to 97 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial 
intensity is raised to 80 kt.
 
The initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/4 kt. 
Rachel's slow motion over the next two days will be governed by a 
ridge extending southwestward from a mid- to upper-level high over 
the western United States. Rachel is forecast to accelerate slightly 
after 60 h, continuing on a west to west-northwestward trajectory 
through the remainder of the forecast period. The updated NHC track 
forecast was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, roughly 
in between the corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean.

Rachel is forecast to experience weakening in the next 24 h as it 
enters an unfavorable environment of cooler sea surface temperatures 
associated with Hurricane Polo's cold wake, moderate northwesterly 
vertical wind shear, and mid-level dry air. However, the cyclone 
could be at the early stage of acquiring structural characteristics 
typical of an annular hurricane, as outer rainbands have dissipated 
in favor of a thick, uniform central core.  This could temper any 
weakening, as long as the easterly wind shear remains relatively 
low, and the new forecast is a bit higher than the last one.  As 
Rachel continues on a westward motion, vertical wind shear 
decreases, allowing environmental conditions to improve and offering 
the chance for some re-intensification through 72 h. Beyond 72 h, 
however, Rachel should encounter an even drier air mass, with 
mid-level relative humidity values dipping below 40 percent, 
alongside SSTs dropping below 26 C.  These conditions are forecast 
to cause the cyclone to gradually weaken through at the end of the 
forecast period, similar to the last advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 20.0N 112.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.3N 113.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.5N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 20.6N 116.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 20.6N 117.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 20.6N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 20.7N 121.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 21.6N 124.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 22.5N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Blake