Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 062031
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026
 
Rachel continues to be impacted by northeasterly wind shear and dry 
mid-level air. Recent satellite imagery shows that the northern 
portion of the circulation is eroding, with the eye now open on the 
northern side. Cloud-top temperatures have warmed, and deep 
convection is now primarily confined to the southern semicircle. The 
latest satellite intensity estimates range between 73 and 85 kt. 
Given the degraded satellite appearance, the initial intensity is 
lowered to 70 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is westward, or 275/6 kt. Rachel is being steered 
west-northwestward by a subtropical ridge located over the western 
United States, and this general motion is expected to continue over 
the next couple of days. Thereafter, a mid- to upper-level trough is 
forecast to approach the U.S. West Coast, which will erode the 
western portion of the ridge. This should cause Rachel to slow down, 
turn sharply toward the northeast, and then re-accelerate. The 
latest NHC track forecast lies very close to the previous official 
forecast, though it has been nudged slightly right and faster at the 
end of the period which trends towards the HCCA and GDMI track aids.
 
Dry air entrainment is steadily eroding the convection, and the 
surrounding air mass is forecast to remain dry and stable. Although 
wind shear may briefly relax, the cyclone will soon be traversing 
cooler sea surface temperatures. Given the combination of these 
hostile environmental conditions, a steady weakening trend is 
anticipated. Convection is expected to become increasingly 
intermittent and disorganized, and the system is forecast to become 
a post-tropical cyclone by day 4. The official NHC intensity 
forecast is very similar to the previous, showing gradual then 
steady weakening throughout the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 20.5N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 20.7N 121.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 21.2N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 21.8N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 22.3N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 22.6N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 22.9N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 24.9N 121.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  11/1800Z 28.5N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly