Stormlio

Advisories

Rachel

76 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 058 Oct 11, 02:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 057A Oct 11, 11:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 057 Oct 11, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 056A Oct 11, 05:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 056 Oct 11, 02:43 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 055A Oct 10, 11:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 055 Oct 10, 08:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 054A Oct 10, 05:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 054 Oct 10, 02:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 053A Oct 10, 11:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 053 Oct 10, 08:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 052A Oct 10, 05:58 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 052 Oct 10, 02:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 051A Oct 9, 11:45 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 051 Oct 9, 08:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 050A Oct 9, 05:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 050 Oct 9, 02:56 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 049 Oct 9, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 048 Oct 9, 02:45 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 047 Oct 8, 08:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 046 Oct 8, 02:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 045 Oct 8, 08:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 044 Oct 8, 02:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 043 Oct 7, 08:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 042 Oct 7, 02:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 041 Oct 7, 09:00 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 040 Oct 7, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 039 Oct 6, 08:31 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 038 Oct 6, 02:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Oct 6, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Oct 6, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Oct 5, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 5, 03:14 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 5, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 5, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 4, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 4, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 4, 08:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 4, 02:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 3, 09:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 3, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 3, 08:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 3, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 2, 08:31 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 2, 02:51 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 2, 08:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 2, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 1, 08:36 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 1, 02:48 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 1, 08:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 1, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Sep 30, 08:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Sep 30, 02:56 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013A Sep 30, 11:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Sep 30, 08:49 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012A Sep 30, 05:52 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Sep 30, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011A Sep 29, 11:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Sep 29, 08:48 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010A Sep 29, 05:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Sep 29, 02:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009A Sep 29, 11:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Sep 29, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008A Sep 29, 05:52 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Sep 29, 02:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007A Sep 28, 11:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Sep 28, 08:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006A Sep 28, 05:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Sep 28, 02:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005A Sep 28, 11:25 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Sep 28, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004A Sep 28, 05:47 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Sep 28, 02:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Sep 27, 08:36 PM UTC 
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272036
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
300 PM CST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
Recent visible satellite imagery shows that banding features
associated the cyclone remain fragmented, but a couple of ASCAT
passes from just after 1500 UTC revealed an area of 35 kt winds to
the southeast of the center.  Therefore, the system has reached
tropical storm status, making Rachel the seventeenth named storm in 
the eastern Pacific basin this season.

Rachel is moving west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. A deep-layer 
ridge building over Mexico is expected to steer the cyclone 
west-northwest at a faster forward speed through mid-week.  This 
heading should result in the core of the storm passing well south 
of the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.  
After 72 hours, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge 
over northwestern Mexico as a trough moves into the southwestern 
United States.  This should cause Rachel to slow, but remain on a 
northwestward to west-northwestward track when it is located well 
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  The NHC track 
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the 
typically reliable consensus aids. 

The SHIPS model continues to diagnose about 20 kt of northeasterly 
shear over the system.  The shear does not appear to be prohibitive 
for strengthening.  In fact, most of the intensity guidance calls 
for gradual strengthening during the next couple few days, and 
Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. After that 
time, there is uncertainty with regards to SSTs as Rachel may track 
over the cool wake from Hurricane Polo.  As a result, the NHC 
intensity forecast plateaus near the end of the forecast period 
between the Google Deep Mind and HFIP corrected consensus 
solutions. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 12.6N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 13.1N  99.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 13.9N 101.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 14.9N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 15.8N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 17.7N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 18.7N 108.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Advisory 002 Sep 27, 02:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Sep 27, 08:55 AM UTC