Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300235
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
The last available visible satellite images of Rachel showed the 
circulation center was still near the northern edge of the deep 
convective mass. The restricted outflow on the northern side of the 
circulation indicates that northeasterly shear continues to plague 
the storm. Recently, a large burst of deep convection has developed 
closer to the estimated center position, but the latest satellite 
intensity estimates do not support upgrading Rachel to a hurricane 
yet. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt.
 
Rachel is moving northwestward (310/11 kt) on the southwestern side 
of a mid-level ridge over northern and central Mexico. A slower 
forward speed is expected over the next day or so as a cutoff 
upper-level low over the southwestern U.S. moves eastward and 
weakens the ridge. This upper low is forecast to lift northward on 
Thursday and Friday, which should allow another ridge to build in to 
the north of Rachel. As a result, Rachel is forecast to turn toward 
the west-northwest and pass well south of the Baja California 
Peninsula before continuing westward away from land. The updated NHC 
track forecast trended slightly faster than the previous one based 
on the latest TVCN and HCCA aids, along with a minor northward 
adjustment at 48-72 h following the multi-model consensus.
 
The northeasterly shear over Rachel is forecast to gradually weaken
during the next day or two, which should allow for a faster rate of
strengthening given very warm SSTs and a moist, divergent
upper-level environment. The latest DTOPS guidance shows about a 50
percent chance of a 45-kt increase in 36 h, and the NHC intensity
forecast remains aggressive on the higher side of the guidance
envelope with HCCA, HAFS-A, and the COAMPS-TC models. Beyond 48 h,
Rachel appears likely to track near or over the cool wake left
behind by Polo while encountering a drier mid-level environment.
Thus, some weakening is anticipated during the latter half of the
forecast period, with the NHC forecast falling in between HCCA and
IVCN during this time.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the warning area tonight.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in
areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 17.0N 106.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 18.9N 108.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 19.5N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 19.8N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 20.0N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 20.2N 112.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 20.4N 114.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart