Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 090245
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Rachel's deep convection is barely hanging on. While satellite 
imagery over the last few hours has shown some re-invigoration over 
the northeastern quadrant, Rachel has been primarily defined by weak 
and broken bands surrounding its inner core. The latest subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB gave Rachel a 2.5/3.5, 
reflecting a weakening trend, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS 
continue to trend downward. ASCAT data from around 1830 UTC also 
revealed max winds at around 43 kt. Given these data, Rachel's 
initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt. 

Initial motion was estimated at around 295/5 kt. Rachel's forward 
speed is expected to slow considerably as it is forecast to be 
picked up by a cutoff low descending from just off the coast of 
California. This will initiate its anticipated northeastward turn, 
followed by an increase in forward speed thereafter. What is 
complicating Rachel's track forecast is the interaction of a much 
broader trough that is forecast to dig down and envelop the western 
US over the weekend. Guidance seems to favor giving Rachel a more 
northerly component in its motion as it approaches northern Baja 
California as a result. The latest NHC track forecast has been 
adjusted once again to fall in line closer to HCCA and GDMI 
guidance, which now favors a leftward shift in the track as Rachel 
approaches land compared to the previous advisory.

The environment surrounding Rachel continues to be characterized by 
dry mid-level air. Thus Rachel's convection is expected to keep 
dissipating, before interaction with the aforementioned low 
potentially reintroduces convection in the form of added instability 
aloft. This will come with the consequence of added vertical wind 
shear, however, which should result in Rachel's vortex further 
degrading. The latest NHC intensity forecast depicts further 
weakening through the next 24 hours, before leveling off thereafter 
to compensate for another potential burst of convection. Rachel, 
however, is still anticipated to become post-tropical either right 
around or shortly after landfall. It should be noted, however, that 
even as a post-tropical cyclone, Rachel is still capable of gusty 
winds and heavy rain along its path. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of northern Baja 
California, Mexico, and the northern Gulf of California at tropical 
storm strength over the weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be 
required for a portion of this area later tonight or tomorrow.

2. Strong gusty winds associated with the remnants of Rachel are 
expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United 
States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend 
into early next week.

3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread 
over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja 
California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to 
increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban 
flooding.

4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along 
the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California.  
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding, 
through early next week.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 22.6N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 22.7N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 23.4N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 25.0N 121.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 28.2N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 32.4N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 37.4N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Adams