Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 082052
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026
 
The convection for Rachel has continue to slowly degrade as dry air
continues to hinder the cyclone. The cloud tops have continued to
warm and now the coldest cloud tops are around -45 C. While the
most recent TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate is still
4.0/65 kt, the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range
of 32-60 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to
55 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion was estimated around 300/3 kt. The storm is 
being steered by high pressure located over the southwestern 
United States. In about 24 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough 
currently sweeping across the Pacific is expected to turn Rachel to 
the northeast and increase its forward speed. The track 
guidance has generally shifted towards the southeast with this 
advisory, therefore the current NHC forecast track has also shifted 
in that direction, favoring the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. 
 
Rachel is expected to continue to weaken during the next 12 to 24 
hours due to cooling sea-surface temperatures and dry mid-level 
air. The wind shear is expected to continue increase as the trough 
moves closer to the storm, which may cause additional weakening, 
however Rachel is expected to be at tropical storm strength when 
it nears Baja California. The current NHC intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous one, with some adjustments made based on the 
HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. 

Rachel could lose tropical cyclone status as deep convection wanes, 
however simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest 
convection will return as it moves northwestward over warmer waters 
and is influenced by the approaching trough. Regardless of the 
status of Rachel on its approach to Baja California, heavy rainfall 
and tropical-storm-force winds are expected over portions of 
northwestern Mexico and the southwest United States.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of northern Baja 
California, Mexico, and the northern Gulf of California at tropical 
storm strength over the weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be 
required for a portion of this area by tonight.

2. Strong gusty winds associated with the remnants of Rachel are 
expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United 
States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend 
into early next week.

3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread 
over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja 
California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to 
increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban 
flooding.

4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along 
the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California.  
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding, 
through early next week.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 22.4N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 22.6N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 24.0N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 26.2N 119.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 30.2N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 33.3N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown