Advisories

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 300234
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...RACHEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 106.6W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo
Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12-24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 12-24
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was 
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 106.6 West. Rachel is 
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward 
motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or 
two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later 
this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is forecast 
to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern 
Mexico through Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 
couple of days. Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane later 
tonight or early Wednesday and a major hurricane by Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center. The Manzanillo International Airport (MMZO) 
recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area later tonight into Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn, Colima and
Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along
the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart