Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 051446
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026
 
Rachel's satellite appearance continues to depict a ring of deep 
convection around a large eye. The system is dealing with some 
northeasterly wind shear, which has brought drier air that has 
entrained into the system and eroded some of the northern, 
particularly northwestern, side of the circulation. Satellite 
intensity estimates have decreased, with the TAFB subjective Dvorak 
classification a T4.5/77 kt, and using this estimate, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 75 kt.

The system is moving westward or 275/6 kt, steered by a mid-level 
ridge located over the southwestern United States and eastern 
Pacific. This general forward motion should continue for the next 
several days. Toward the end of the period, a mid- to upper-level 
trough will move into the eastern Pacific northwest of the cyclone, 
causing the system to slow and make a sharp northeastward turn. The 
latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and 
continues to blend the HCCA and GDMI model solutions.

Rachel is traversing marginally warm sea surface temperatures of 
around 26-27C while dealing with some shear and drier air. Given 
recent structural changes, there will likely be fluctuations in 
intensity over the next day or so. Beyond 36 to 48 h, sea surface 
temperatures cool along the forecast track, which, combined with 
increasing dry air, will induce a more steady weakening trend. 
Determining when Rachel becomes post-tropical has been tricky, as 
the aforementioned trough that will turn the system northeastward 
may induce some baroclinic support to maintain convection. Simulated 
infrared imagery shows that convection may become less organized by 
day 5, and the latest NHC forecast now depicts the system becoming 
post-tropical at that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
remains at the high end of the guidance envelope near the HCCA and 
GDMI in the short term, then trends closer to the rest of the 
consensus aids as the system weakens through the end of the forecast 
period. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 20.4N 116.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 21.1N 121.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 21.7N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 22.0N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 22.4N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 23.1N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly