Advisories

Rachel

76 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 058 Oct 11, 02:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 057A Oct 11, 11:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 057 Oct 11, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 056A Oct 11, 05:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 056 Oct 11, 02:43 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 055A Oct 10, 11:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 055 Oct 10, 08:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 054A Oct 10, 05:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 054 Oct 10, 02:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 053A Oct 10, 11:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 053 Oct 10, 08:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 052A Oct 10, 05:58 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 052 Oct 10, 02:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 051A Oct 9, 11:45 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 051 Oct 9, 08:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 050A Oct 9, 05:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 050 Oct 9, 02:56 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 049 Oct 9, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 048 Oct 9, 02:45 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 047 Oct 8, 08:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 046 Oct 8, 02:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 045 Oct 8, 08:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 044 Oct 8, 02:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 043 Oct 7, 08:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 042 Oct 7, 02:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 041 Oct 7, 09:00 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 040 Oct 7, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 039 Oct 6, 08:31 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 038 Oct 6, 02:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Oct 6, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Oct 6, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Oct 5, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 5, 03:14 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 5, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 5, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 4, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 4, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 4, 08:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 4, 02:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 3, 09:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 3, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 3, 08:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 3, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 2, 08:31 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 2, 02:51 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 2, 08:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 2, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 1, 08:36 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 1, 02:48 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 1, 08:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 1, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Sep 30, 08:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Sep 30, 02:56 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013A Sep 30, 11:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Sep 30, 08:49 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012A Sep 30, 05:52 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Sep 30, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011A Sep 29, 11:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Sep 29, 08:48 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010A Sep 29, 05:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Sep 29, 02:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009A Sep 29, 11:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Sep 29, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008A Sep 29, 05:52 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Sep 29, 02:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007A Sep 28, 11:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Sep 28, 08:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006A Sep 28, 05:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Sep 28, 02:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005A Sep 28, 11:25 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Sep 28, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004A Sep 28, 05:47 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Sep 28, 02:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Sep 27, 08:36 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Sep 27, 02:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Sep 27, 08:55 AM UTC
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 270855
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
300 AM CST Sun Sep 27 2026

The tropical disturbance located south of Mexico, formerly Invest 
90E, has become better organized based on satellite imagery over the 
last several hours. Scatterometry data from around 0300 UTC depicts 
a closed circulation, with the system moving into a favorable 
environment for further development. Subjective Dvorak 
intensity analysis from TAFB also rated the system at 2.0/30 kt.  
Therefore, advisories have begun for Tropical Depression 
Eighteen-E. 

The initial motion is somewhat uncertain since the cyclone has only 
recently formed, but the motion estimate is around 285/9 kt. Track 
guidance is in good agreement on steering this system generally to 
the west-northwest over the next several days, with an increase in 
forward speed as it runs south of a mid-level high over Mexico. The 
current NHC track forecast generally falls within the middle of the 
guidance envelope, favoring HCCA in particular. 

SHIPS guidance suggests that vertical wind shear may be an 
inhibiting factor for development for the first 24 h, before the 
Depression is expected to gradually strengthen as SSTs remain warm 
and mid-level moisture appears favorable. There is some uncertainty 
with regards to SSTs due to colder waters potentially being churned 
up in the wake of Hurricane Polo, so the current intensity forecast 
is a little conservative at first, before depicting gradual 
strengthening through the late weekend onward. This still falls 
around the median of the guidance envelope. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 12.2N  99.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 12.7N  99.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 13.2N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 13.8N 102.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 14.7N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 15.7N 105.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 16.9N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 18.7N 109.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 19.7N 110.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Pasch