Advisories

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 302042
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
...RACHEL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THE STORM IS
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 108.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of Rachel.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.0 West. Rachel is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion at
a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this
week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to
move away from mainland Mexico and pass south of the Baja California
Peninsula through Thursday.
 
Reports from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that 
maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected today and tonight, and
Rachel could become a major hurricane within the next day or so.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 978 mb (28.88 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce additional rainfall totals 
of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches, 
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, 
Michoacn, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along
the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven