Advisories

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 091455
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 124.6W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southern California
coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange
County Line.
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the 
west coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas 
northward to the U.S./Mexico Border and, the east coast of Baja 
California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border
northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line
* West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas
northward to the U.S./Mexico Border
* East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to
Puerto Penasco
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, 
and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of 
Rachel.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was 
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 124.6 West. Rachel is 
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northeast 
to north-northeast motion, with a significant increase in forward 
speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast 
track, the center of Rachel is expected to approach the northern 
Baja California Peninsula or southern California late Saturday 
or early Sunday.  
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible the next day or two, with rapid 
weakening forecast after the storm moves inland over the 
southwestern United States on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header
WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area 
in Baja California, and southern California by Saturday night or 
early Sunday. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are 
expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United 
States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend 
into early next week.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of 
Baja California this weekend.

Rachel and associated moisture of the system will also bring 
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 
inches in portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This 
will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash 
and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk 
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero.
 
SURF: Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast 
of Southern California and northern Baja California through the 
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major 
coastal flooding, through early next week.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly