Advisories

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 301134
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
500 AM MST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
...RACHEL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 107.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo
Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located 
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. Rachel is moving 
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion 
at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two, 
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this 
week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to 
move away from mainland Mexico and south of the Baja California 
Peninsula through Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected today, and Rachel could 
become a major hurricane within the next day or so.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area this morning.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn, Colima and
Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast 
of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along 
the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula 
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven