Advisories

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 280544
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
1100 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY MORNING IN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 114.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a 
Hurricane Warning along the coast of Mainland Mexico from Bahia 
Kino to Guaymas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 18 to 36 
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed 
to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 114.0 West. Polo is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion should continue 
for the next several hours followed by a turn toward the northeast 
on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the 
west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the 
peninsula Monday evening and then approach northwestern mainland 
Mexico late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday,
and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in
mainland Mexico late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late Monday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern
portion of the warning area Monday morning. These conditions are
expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur
on Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico late Monday night through early Tuesday with
tropical storm conditions expected to begin Monday night.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals
of 8 inches are expected across portions of Sonora. This rainfall 
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen