Advisories

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230834
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF POLO BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO..
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located near 
latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.4 West. Polo is moving toward the 
north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A sharp turn to the northwest is expected 
to begin later today followed by a general west-northwestward motion 
later this week and over the weekend. On the forecast track, the 
core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico 
during the next day or two, although it is forecast to remain 
offshore.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but
Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during
the next few days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico on Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacn through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi