Advisories

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 270547
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
1100 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO 
COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...

 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 113.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to 
Punta Eugenia.
* The east coast of Baja California Sur, from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to 
Punta Eugenia.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible 
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before 
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, 
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 
hours.
 
Interests in portions of northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor 
the progress of Polo.  Additional watches will likely be required 
for the Sonora Coast on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 113.4 West. Polo is moving 
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is 
expected to continue tonight. A northward turn is expected on 
Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the 
forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja 
California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday night and 
then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the 
next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it 
approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (260 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area 
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon, 
with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of 
the warning area by Sunday night into early Monday. These conditions 
are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday and then 
eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday evening.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in 
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be 
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of 
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur 
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward 
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the 
remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen