Advisories

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 242050
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 PM CST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT POLO'S WINDS ARE
NEAR 150 MPH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch for the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west is expected later today and Friday, followed by a west-
northwestward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core
of Polo is expected to move away from the coast of southwestern
Mexico this afternoon and evening.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is expected tonight. 
Gradual weakening is forecast to occur starting Friday night and 
Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches across
coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima,
northern and southern Jalisco, and Nayarit. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible
in coastal portions of the Mexican states of central Jalisco and
Guerrero.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven