Advisories

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230834
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
Satellite images indicate that Polo remains a powerful major
hurricane. The cyclone continues to maintain a distinct, circular,
and clear eye. However, the convection in the eyewall is not quite
as intense as it had been over the past 24 hours. Although there
have not been any recent microwave images available, there are
still signs in geostationary satellite data that the system has a
double eyewall structure. The initial intensity is set at 135 kt,
which is in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates.
The far northern bands are brushing up against the southwestern
coast of Mexico, and ASCAT data show winds to tropical storm force
just off the coast.
 
The cyclone has moved little over the past several hours, however,
a building mid-level ridge over Mexico and the south-central U.S.
should cause Polo to turn northwestward or west-northwestward later
today. This motion should take the center of the hurricane just off
the coast of southwestern Mexico through Thursday. Even though the
intense core of Polo should stay offshore, outer rainbands are
likely to spread across southwestern Mexico during the next day or
so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds.
Polo should pass well south of the Baja California Peninsula Friday
and Saturday, and then likely turn northward when it reaches the
western periphery of the ridge. Little change was made to the 
previous track forecast, and this prediction is near a blend of the 
HCCA, GDMI, and TVCA aids.
 
Fluctuations in strength seems likely over the next day or so, due 
to internal dynamics, while the major hurricane remains in favorable 
environmental conditions. However, a gradual weakening trend is 
expected after that time due to an increase in easterly vertical 
wind shear and slightly drier air. Nonetheless, Polo is forecast to 
remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days. The NHC 
intensity forecast lies generally near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of 
southwestern Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect 
westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely 
monitor updates to the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 15.0N 101.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 15.4N 102.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.7N 107.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 17.3N 110.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 19.4N 112.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 22.4N 113.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi