Advisories

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232049
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests that Polo seems to be at
or near the end of its eyewall replacement cycle, as the eyewall
cloud tops have gotten colder during the past several hours, and the
eye is gradually becoming more distinct. The various satellite
intensity estimates are lower than they were six hours ago, but they
are no longer falling. The initial intensity is lowered to 125 kt,
and for the moment that could still be a little generous. The
hurricane's outer rainbands continue to affect the coast of Mexico.
 
The hurricane is now moving faster toward the northwest at 310/6 kt. 
Water vapor imagery suggests a mid-level ridge is building over 
Texas and northern Mexico, and the dynamical models forecast this 
ridge to build westward to the north of Polo starting on Thursday as 
an upper-level trough near Baja California weakens and lifts out. 
This evolution should result in Polo moving northwestward for 12 h 
or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion with some increase in 
forward speed. There have been changes in the forecast guidance 
since the last advisory for the forecast period after 60 h. The 
cluster of models that was forecasting a northward motion has 
shifted a touch to the west, while the cluster that was forecasting 
a more northwestward motion has shifted more northward. So, while 
there is still spread and uncertainty, the guidance is a little more 
clustered than before. The biggest changes are the ECMWF and the 
UKMET, which are now part of the northward moving cluster.  The new 
forecast track for this period follows the northward cluster to a 
position west of Baja California by 120 h.  Overall, the new track 
is similar to the previous track through 72 h and a little west of 
the previous track after that.

The intensity guidance continues to suggest a little decrease in 
intensity during the next 12-24 h followed by slight strengthening. 
However, since Polo is completing its eyewall replacement, it is 
possible that intensification could occur at any time. So, the new 
intensity forecast now shows re-intensification during the next 24 
h.  After 48 h, the environment gradually becomes less favorable 
due to slightly stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air 
entrainment. The guidance forecasts slow weakening during this 
time, and the new intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast 
is again near the upper edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and 
then lies closer to the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
While the center of Polo is forecast to remain offshore, outer
rainbands should spread across southwestern Mexico during the next
day or so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force
winds.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions 
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of 
southwestern Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, and 
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect west of that to Playa Perula. 
Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 15.7N 102.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 16.9N 106.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 17.2N 108.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 17.7N 110.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 18.9N 112.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 22.2N 113.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 24.3N 113.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven