Advisories

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 260553
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
1100 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026
 
...POLO REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS 
A POWERFUL HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 110.5W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 110.5 West. Polo is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is 
expected to continue tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the 
northwest on Saturday and north on Sunday. By Monday, Polo is 
forecast to turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur.
 
Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 
175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.  Polo is an extremely 
dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind 
Scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Saturday. 
Slow weakening is expected after that, but Polo is expected to 
remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur on 
Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb (26.90 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the
southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early 
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the 
day on Monday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen