Advisories

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240833
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
300 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
Polo remains a powerful category 5 hurricane. Satellite images 
indicate that the cyclone is maintaining a clear, distinct, and 
circular eye surrounded by an intense and symmetric ring of deep 
convection. The initial intensity is held at 140 kt, near the upper 
end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Although the core 
of the hurricane is about 50 to 100 n mi off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico, outer rainbands are spreading onshore and 
producing heavy rains. ASCAT data was helpful in adjusting the 
initial wind radii, confirming that tropical-storm-force winds are 
likely occurring along the coast of southwestern Mexico.
 
After jogging to the north last night, Polo appears to be on a more 
steady northwestward track now, with the initial motion estimated to 
be 310/8 kt. A building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the 
south-central U.S. should cause Polo to accelerate to the 
west-northwest over the next couple of days, taking the system 
away from southwestern Mexico during that time. Polo will likely 
reach the western periphery of the ridge over the weekend, and that 
should cause the hurricane to turn northward toward the Baja 
California Peninsula late this weekend and early next week. The 
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and based on a 
blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids.
 
Fluctuations in strength seem likely over the next day or so while
Polo remains in favorable environmental conditions, and any changes
in strength during that time will likely be linked to internal
dynamics. However, gradual weakening is expected this weekend and
early next week due to an increase in vertical wind shear.
Regardless, Polo is forecast to be a major hurricane during the next
several days. This intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
one, and in best agreement with the HCCA guidance.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions
of the coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to
Manzanillo today.
 
3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 16.5N 103.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.9N 104.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W  145 KT 165 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 17.3N 108.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 18.7N 111.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 23.5N 113.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 26.1N 112.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi