Advisories

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 271457
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
Polo continues to have a pretty healthy structure on geostationary
satellite imagery this morning, with very cold cloud tops associated
with robust eyewall convection. The most recent F18 SSMIS microwave
pass showed a mostly closed eyewall, albeit with some erosion on the
east side, likely due to some residual easterly vertical wind shear.
Both the subjective and objective intensity estimates over the past
6 h have increased somewhat, with the latest SATCON, DPRINT, and 
DMINT estimates between 106-113 kt. Thus, the initial intensity is 
nudged up slightly to 110 kt for this advisory. A NOAA P-3 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route and will provide 
updated in-situ data on Polo this afternoon.
 
Polo continues to make its turn more northward, with the latest
estimated motion at 345 degrees at 10 kt. The hurricane should soon
turn northward and the northeastward over the next 12-24 h as it is
steered between the deep-layer ridging that is centered over Mexico
and a mid-latitude shortwave trough that will soon move into
California. It is this short-wave that is expected to capture Polo
as it reaches the coast of Baja California Sur, leading to further
acceleration as the hurricane turns northeastward. While the track
guidance this cycle is very tightly clustered near the previous
forecast track, but are somewhat faster along this track. Thus the
latest NHC track forecast has been moved slightly faster and
roughly splits the difference between the reliable HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI)
aids. Its is worth noting there remains some along-track spread in
the ensemble guidance, so the exact timing of landfall is more
uncertain than usual in the 24-48 h time frame.
 
The intensity forecast also has some challenges. Polo has maintained 
a fairly healthy appearance while its been dealing with light to 
moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance now 
shows the shear decreasing over the next 12-24 h, and given the 
slightly stronger initial intensity, the latest NHC intensity 
forecast is higher than the previous one. This forecast is on the 
high end of the interpolated intensity guidance, and now shows Polo 
reaching the coast of the Baja California Peninsula as a 95 kt 
hurricane. It is worth mentioning the latest HAFS-B raw model output 
shows Polo could retain major hurricane intensity at landfall. Some 
weakening should occur as it moves over the rugged terrain of Baja 
California, but it is increasingly likely that Polo's second 
landfall in mainland Mexico will also be as a (weaker) hurricane. 
Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter as it moves inland over 
Mexico with Polo becoming post-tropical or dissipating by 72 h.
 
Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before
it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with
it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United
States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as tonight or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions
will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm
surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur tonight into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 22.7N 113.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 24.5N 113.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 26.3N 112.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 28.6N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 31.5N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin