Advisories

000
WTPA45 PHFO 050843
TCDCP5
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026
 
The satellite presentation for Karina continues to look less 
impressive, as most of the convection on the southern side of the 
hurricane has dissipated. The combination of wind shear, dry 
air, and cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to take 
their toll on the cyclone. The subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates from both JTWC and HFO gave a T4.0/65 kt, and the  
UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates are in the range 
of 59-65 kt. Therefore, the intensity for Karina has been brought 
down to 65 kt for this advisory. 
 
A subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina is steering the 
hurricane toward the northwest (305/8 kt). A mid- to upper-level 
trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the next couple of 
days, which should allow the cyclone to gain some latitude as it 
moves toward the west-northwest or northwest. Then, a more 
westward motion is forecast before the system is absorbed well to 
the north of the Hawaiian Islands by the outer circulation of 
Hurricane Lowell. The current NHC forecast track is very similar to 
the previous forecast track with just a few minor adjustments to the 
track.

Karina is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days as 
the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and encounters increasing 
southwesterly shear and more dry air. The combination of these 
elements will hinder the develop of convection in the inner core 
of the system. The current NHC intensity forecast has Karina 
weakening to a tropical storm Saturday and becoming a post-tropical 
low around 60 h. This intensity forecast is very close to the most 
recent multi-model consensus aids (HCCA and IVCN) and is similar to 
the previous intensity forecast.  

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 21.4N 142.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 21.9N 143.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 23.1N 145.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 23.5N 146.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 24.0N 149.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  08/0600Z 24.6N 151.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven