Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022033
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026
 
Karina's satellite presentation has degraded this morning,
characterized by warming cloud tops in infrared imagery and an eye
that has become more cloud-filled. The system is still annular,
although there are signs of the system losing that structure in
recent microwave imagery that depicts the eastern eyewall has
started to thin. The Data T-number from the latest TAFB Dvorak
classification has decreased to T5.5, with a Current Intensity (CI)
of 6.5. Objective intensity estimates have also been gradually
decreasing since the previous advisory and currently range from 112
to 127 kt. Given the degraded satellite appearance and a blend of
the available intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to
120 kt for this advisory, which could be a little generous.
 
The steering pattern is well established, and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is anticipated over the next several days
while the system is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.
Later in the forecast period, a mid-level low is forecast to move
into the central Pacific north of the Hawaiian Islands. This feature
will cause the ridge to weaken, inducing a more northwestward turn.
The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one
and is based on a blend of the HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.
 
Karina will track over marginally warm sea surface temperatures over 
the next few days with low wind shear. However, the system will be 
moving into a drier, more stable airmass by tomorrow. This should 
induce a gradual weakening trend during the next day or so. Wind 
shear is than expected to increase, combined with the track moving 
over cooler SSTs by 72 h, which will result in a more steady rate of 
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of 
the intensity guidance in the near term, given the still annular 
structure, followed by a faster rate closer to some of the consensus 
intensity aids. By Day 5, the system is forecast to become 
post-tropical as models show the system becoming devoid of 
convection.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 18.9N 133.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 19.8N 137.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.2N 139.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 20.6N 140.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 21.2N 142.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 22.1N 143.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 24.1N 145.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 26.4N 149.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly