Advisories

Karina

43 advisories on record

CPHC Advisory 043 Sep 7, 02:46 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 042 Sep 6, 08:31 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 041 Sep 6, 02:48 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 040 Sep 6, 08:42 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 039 Sep 6, 02:31 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 038 Sep 5, 08:34 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 037 Sep 5, 02:41 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 036 Sep 5, 08:43 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 035 Sep 5, 02:32 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 034 Sep 4, 08:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Sep 4, 02:45 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Sep 4, 08:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Sep 4, 02:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Sep 3, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Sep 3, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Sep 3, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Sep 3, 02:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Sep 2, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Sep 2, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Sep 2, 08:43 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Sep 2, 02:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Sep 1, 08:31 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Sep 1, 02:31 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Sep 1, 08:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Sep 1, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Aug 31, 08:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Aug 31, 02:55 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Aug 31, 08:47 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Aug 31, 02:55 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Aug 30, 11:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Aug 30, 08:50 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Aug 30, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Aug 30, 08:32 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Aug 30, 02:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Aug 29, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Aug 29, 02:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Aug 29, 08:52 AM UTC
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 290852
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The overall structure of Karina has remained largely unchanged, with 
a fragmented convective band located over the southern semicircle. 
Moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear continues to impart a 
slight northward tilt to the vortex, with most of the deep 
convection located over and north of the low-level circulation 
center. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is 
T3.5/55 kt, which aligns with the latest objective estimates from 
UW-CIMSS. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is 
held at 55 kt.
 
Karina continues on a northwestward heading of about 310/10 kt, 
driven by a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern United 
States. The storm is expected to slow down and turn westward as a 
mid-level trough to the north breaks down this ridge, allowing the 
ridge over the central North Pacific to build southeastward and take 
over as the primary steering flow. The NHC track forecast closely 
follows the HCCA guidance, essentially remaining unchanged from the 
previous forecast. 

SHIPS guidance continues to show a favorable environment for Karina 
to intensify over the next 60 h. Driven by light wind shear, warm 
SSTs, and abundant atmospheric moisture, conditions are conducive 
for the storm to reach major hurricane status. This is further 
supported by the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, where over 80 
percent of members bring Karina to major hurricane intensity. Beyond 
the weekend, SHIPS diagnostics indicate that conditions will 
deteriorate, which should induce a weakening trend by early next 
week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 14.7N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 15.5N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 16.9N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 17.3N 123.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 18.1N 127.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 19.3N 129.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 20.8N 132.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs
 
NHC Advisory 006 Aug 29, 02:52 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Aug 28, 08:31 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Aug 28, 02:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Aug 28, 08:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Aug 28, 02:45 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Aug 27, 08:46 PM UTC