Weather alerts for the NWS Shreveport LA forecast area

000
FXUS64 KSHV 281130
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

 - Abnormally warm temperatures and continued dry conditions will
   linger across the region through much of Friday, before
   scattered showers and a few thunderstorms finally return to the
   area Friday night through the first half of the upcoming 
   weekend.
   
 - Halloween trick-or-treating may be wet for some Saturday
   evening as scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persist
   before diminishing late Saturday night or early Sunday. 
 
 - The return for additional showers and thunderstorms and much
   needed rain is expected Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold
   front, which should bring more seasonal temperatures back to
   the area by midweek next week.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A light SSErly low level flow late this evening has yielded a bit of 
a cu field over portions of Deep E TX/Wrn LA, even as the elevated cigs 
continue to diminish across the Ern sections of NCntrl LA. While
the region remains on the wrn fringes of sfc ridging extending
from E TX NE through the TN Valley into New England, which has 
resulted in decoupling winds, the expanding cu field should help 
to limit the extent of radiational cooling, resulting in overnight
temps a bit milder than what was observed the last several 
mornings. Weak sfc ridging should hold across the area through 
Friday, although some low level moisture will continue to affect 
the Wrn half of the area through the period, but the lack of any 
lifting mechanism in the SW flow aloft will maintain dry 
conditions across the region. Above normal daytime temps will 
continue though, as stronger insolation results with the extent of
any elevated cigs neglishable, which has helped hold afternoon 
temps down in recent days. 

Our next weather-maker will come in the form of a developing
shortwave trough, which will lift NE out of Cntrl Old MX Thursday and
into WCntrl TX/OK Thursday night and Friday. Elevated cigs will
begin to increase and thicken across E TX/N LA Thursday ahead of
this system, before spreading across the remainder of the region
Thursday night. The deep lyr moisture profile will remain shallow
though through much of Friday, before low level moisture advection
increases enough in time as large scale ascent increases ahead of
the ejecting trough. Should see an increase in scattered
convection across the region Friday night and Halloween Saturday,
but QPF should remain light with the trick-or-treat forecast not
necessarily a washout, although the potential exists that some
convection may linger Saturday night across Southwest AR/N LA.
While the increased cloud cover will yield cooler daytime temps
Friday into the weekend, the increase in low level moisture will
result in more humid conditions, especially in time for the
trick-or-treaters Saturday evening with dewpoints well into the
60s. The GFS remains more progressive with the ejection of the 
trough than the slower ECMWF, and while at least some isolated
-SHRA may linger across the area Sunday, we await the next
deepening trough/closed low that will develop Sunday over the
Great Basin, which will drift through the Rockies and the Four
Corners Region Sunday night and Monday. 

This deepening system will tap an increase in deepening moisture
once again, with convection developing along/ahead of an attendant
cold front from the Srn Plains Ne into the Ozarks. Timing and 
convection placement remain a bit uncertain this far out given the
uncertainties amongst the various ensembles, and also the 
potential for the low to close off and linger to our W through at 
least mid to late next week. But in any case, this second system 
could bring about much needed rain to the region, the first 
significant rains since September/early October. In the wake of
this system, more seasonal temps should return to the region for
mid and late next week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Very shallow low level moisture return is being observed this
morning across our airspace with any ceilings being mostly VFR
with base heights near 3.5kft to 4kft. The exception to this is
the TYR terminal as the further west you go into our airspace, the
lower the cloud bases with TYR currently with a prevailing ceiling
at 2kft. Eventually, any MVFR ceilings will return to VFR
conditions by mid to late morning. We should see increasing high
clouds once again from the west and southwest late in the TAF
period. Look for E to SE winds with speeds near 5 to 10kts or
less. 

13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

An elevated wildfire threat will persist today and again Thursday
over North Louisiana, Southwest Arkansas, extreme Southeast 
Oklahoma, and portions of extreme Eastern Texas, as a combination 
of low relative humidity and critically to extremely dry fuels 
will help spread any wildfires that ignite. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Spotter activation may be needed over the next couple of days in 
the event of wildfire development. /15/ 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  59  84  58 /   0   0   0   0 
MLU  85  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  84  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0 
TXK  84  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0 
ELD  85  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0 
TYR  84  63  84  63 /   0   0   0   0 
GGG  84  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0 
LFK  85  59  84  58 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13