Weather alerts for the NWS Fort Worth TX forecast area

000
FXUS64 KFWD 281050
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.

- Isolated showers and storms (20% chance) are possible near and 
  south of I-20 today.
 
- Higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures are 
  expected from late Thursday through Saturday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A warm/moist advection regime will remain in place today, sending
a swath of low stratus and perhaps even some fog into parts of
Central Texas later this morning. While zonal flow will prevail
aloft devoid of any meaningful ascent, warm/moist advection should
be sufficient to result in isolated coverage of showers and
perhaps even a thunderstorm mainly south of I-20 during the
daytime today. Coverage is likely to only be around 20% or less.
Increasing cloud cover may shave a couple degrees off of 
afternoon highs, but they will still be soundly above normal in 
the upper 70s and lower 80s. It will also be increasingly and 
unseasonably humid as surface dewpoints climb into the 60s later 
today. 

The onset of subtle mid-level shortwave ridging should largely 
eliminate rain chances from this evening into Thursday morning 
before our next chance for rain begins Thursday afternoon/evening. 
An unseasonably warm/humid airmass will remain in place while 
upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS, allowing a 
strengthening subtropical jet streak to impinge on the area. 
Widespread mid/high cloud cover should begin streaming into the 
western half of the area by Thursday afternoon, with showers 
becoming increasingly likely late in the day. PoPs will be capped 
at roughly 30% through the daytime before the peak rain chances 
arrive in the long term forecast period. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Remnants of a Pacific tropical system will phase with broad
troughing already in place heading into Friday, and this will 
lead to rain chances to end the workweek and begin the weekend. In
comparison to previous forecasts, overall rain chances and 
expected amounts have both decreased slightly, with the trajectory
of this system trending increasingly north/northwest of the 
forecast area. Areas near/west of I-35 will experience scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms on an intermittent basis from 
Thursday night through Saturday as this system gradually ejects 
into the Central Plains, but coverage of measurable rainfall may 
be much more scant east of the I-35 corridor. Either way, this 
system's presence will make for a mostly cloudy and therefore 
slightly cooler start to the weekend with highs in the mid/upper 
70s. An overall lack of instability should keep occurrences of 
thunder rather scarce, and this system will only really consist of
beneficial rainfall for the lucky locations that manage to 
receive some. Most of this activity should be on a downward trend 
by Saturday evening, keeping the majority of Halloween evening 
activities unaffected. 

A much more potent storm system is still on track to take hold of
the central CONUS by early next week. Following a likely rain- 
free Sunday, this rapidly deepening system could send a cold 
front through the forecast area sometime Monday or early Tuesday,
which would be accompanied by additional chances for showers and 
storms. The finer details of this system will become clearer in 
the next few days, but at a minimum, a decent fall frontal passage
is looking increasingly likely during the first half of next 
week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

MVFR stratus has surged northward during the past couple of 
hours, and is now expected to encroach on D10 airports for at 
least a couple of hours this morning. A short Tempo group has been
introduced to include cigs near 2 kft, with uncertainty in the 
longevity of these conditions. For Waco, IFR cig heights will be 
possible for the next couple of hours, but should lift to MVFR 
heights fairly quickly after daybreak. Lifting/scattering to VFR 
at all airports is expected by mid to late morning. While a few 
rain showers are possible mainly in Central Texas this afternoon, 
the expected coverage is too low to warrant any precip mention in 
the TAFs at this time. A south/southeast wind around 10 kt will 
prevail through the duration of the forecast period. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  66  83  66 /  10  10  10  20 
Waco                83  64  82  63 /  20  10  20  20 
Paris               83  62  85  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              82  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  20 
McKinney            81  63  83  63 /  10  10   0  10 
Dallas              83  67  84  66 /  10  10  10  20 
Terrell             82  63  84  63 /  10  10   0  10 
Corsicana           82  64  83  65 /  20  10  10  20 
Temple              84  64  82  63 /  30  10  20  20 
Mineral Wells       82  62  82  61 /  10  10  30  40 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley