Weather alerts for the NWS Amarillo TX forecast area

000
FXUS64 KAMA 281122
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Patchy areas of fog will be possible across the southern Texas
  Panhandle tonight, with potential for localized areas of dense 
  fog.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday night through
  Friday night. There is a low chance for flooding or flash 
  flooding.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return Sunday into Monday. Breezy
  to windy conditions are looking likely behind a cold front
  Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Although the overall signal from model data isn't terribly 
convincing, we will be monitoring for localized patches of fog 
(potentially dense in spots) to develop through the morning hours. 
Given the amount of moisture in the ground across the Panhandles 
(especially southern areas), we could see areas of fog develop as 
winds diminish and temperatures cool to the mid 50s. Any fog or low 
clouds should burn off not long after sunrise. 

Panhandle weather should remain relatively benign today and most of 
Thursday, as most of the CONUS is seeing quasi-zonal flow stretching 
from coast to coast. Mild and breezy conditions today will reduce to 
just mild tomorrow, with highs in the 70s to low 80s. A tightening 
surface pressure gradient this afternoon will keep winds sustained 
around 10-20 mph gusting around 30 mph at times. As we progress 
through the day Thursday, troughing is forecast to develop atop the 
Baja Peninsula. This feature will place increasing southwest flow 
aloft over the Panhandles, and begin to draw a fetch of moisture 
northward from what is now Tropical Storm Vance. This increasing 
saturation in conjunction with initial rounds of mid-level 
perturbations will begin our next opportunity for rain across 
portions of the Panhandles. This equates to 30-60% chances for 
showers and weak storms beginning across primarily our southern 
counties overnight Thursday into Friday morning. 

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Our "rags to riches" turnaround in rainfall should continue late 
this week into next week across the Panhandles, as models 
persistently indicate an active weather pattern. Increasing lift 
within south-southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching 
trough should maintain the influx of enhanced tropical moisture 
(PWATs 1.0-1.5"), generating widespread showers and embedded weak 
storms for the Panhandles Friday - Fri night. Rain should gradually 
diminish through the overnight hours into Saturday, as the passage 
of the upper level trough axis provides a push of drier mid-level 
air. Current probabilities for measurable rain remain quite 
promising across the Panhandles, as there are very few reasons for 
concern to be found (60-90% POPs area wide). In general though, 
confidence in receiving beneficial rainfall by Saturday morning is 
highest to the southeast (40-70% chance for >1" rainfall), and lower 
for the northwest (10-40% chance for >0.5" rainfall). 

If you don't see much rain from this first system, global models 
show additional chances Sunday night into Monday as another deep 
trough approaches from the west. This system is projected to have 
another strong push of moisture from the south being advected to the 
region, which spells 30-60% rain probabilities for a majority of the 
CWA. However, there does appear to be greater uncertainty with this 
system, as models disagree on a few synoptic features. These 
disagreements primarily hinge on differing tracks and timing of 
the trough, and potential for a dry slot to infiltrate the region 
before best lift arrives (like the GFS currently shows). 
Regardless, it is likely that there will be at least a brief 
window for showers and storms at some point Sunday night - 
Monday.

Temperatures through the Fri-Mon time frame look to stay quite 
seasonal in the 60s and 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. 
We can anticipate a strong cold front to charge over the Panhandles 
Monday as stout northwest flow aloft on the backside of the latter 
trough passage stretches over the region. Rapid pressure rises and 
stacked jet dynamics behind this FROPA spells a solidly windy start 
to the week Mon & Tue, with sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph 
gusting 40 mph or possibly greater both days. This will aid cold air 
advection to the southern High Plains, but will impact overnight 
lows more than afternoon highs (lows in the 30s and 40s). Model 
agreement on synoptic evolution further fractures Tuesday and 
beyond, but our active pattern may linger through much of next week.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

As of early this morning present satellite was seeing a low cloud
deck alongside some mist build across the Southwestern Panhandles
with KAMA currently on its fringes. Expectations are for the 
cloud deck to eventually pull over KAMA resulting in CIGs dropping
into IFR levels with some brief MVFR visibilities at the surface.
Thankfully most CAMS do not have these conditions lasting too 
long with current trends having them end around 9 to 10 AM CDT. As
for KDHT and KGUY, present satellite has already seen all cloud 
decks clear with both terminals reporting VFR level conditions 
this morning. Regardless, skyies should clear by this afternoon 
with all terminals expected to hold at VFR levels through the late
night hours.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...11