Weather alerts for the NWS Norman OK forecast area

000
FXUS64 KOUN 281145
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Rain chances increase late Thursday through Saturday. Highest 
  rain totals western OK and western north TX.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week, low 
confidence on details. 

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Today will feature rather pleasant, but warm, conditions as we see 
much less in the way of cloud cover compared to yesterday and 
heights rise slightly through the day. As a result, high 
temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon, or about 
10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. A tightening 
pressure gradient will also boost winds a bit over yesterday, with 
gusts up to 25-30 mph possible this afternoon across much of the 
area (highest north). High clouds will begin to increase across 
southern portions of the area by late afternoon ahead of our next 
system but are not expected to have much impact on sensible weather. 

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Clouds will increase through the day Thursday as mid-level 
moisture from Tropical Storm Vance is advected northward within 
broader southwest flow aloft, with rain chances increasing as 
well across our western north TX counties later Thursday into 
Thursday night as a shortwave tracks towards the area. Better rain
chances arrive Friday and Friday night as the wave reaches the 
area, with the highest rainfall totals still favored across 
western OK and western north TX where warm air advection will be 
strongest. Instability appears lacking with this system which 
should limit the thunderstorm potential to isolated at best, 
meaning a fairly low lightning risk (10-20%) in most areas. 

Ware 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Forcing is expected to weaken Saturday as the wave moves 
eastward, but the general trend has been towards a bit slower exit
for precipitation chances Saturday, with rain showers potentially
lasting into the afternoon or early evening across central and 
north-central OK. Once again lightning potential appears low. 
Storm-total rainfall amounts are likely to exceed an inch across 
portions of western OK and western north TX where NBM is still 
highlighting over 60-70% probabilities of this amount, with 
probabilities of exceeding an inch of rain quickly dropping to 
10-20% along and east of I-35 where totals closer to 0.5-0.75" are
expected to be more common.

Drier conditions are forecast Saturday night into much of the day
on Sunday but will not last long as another system is slated to 
move in rather quickly behind this one. Models are still 
struggling to resolve the details of this system as energy from 
the northern and southern streams attempts to phase over the 
central US. Depending on how the two streams interact will 
determine the track and amplitude of the system as it moves across
the area early next week. The more amplified solutions would 
bring a risk for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall to portions 
of the area, while other solutions show extensive dry-slotting and
much lower rainfall totals. No clear favorite is evident in the 
ensemble members at the moment leading to rather low forecast 
confidence during this period, though for now the period of 
greatest potential impact appears to be centered around Monday. 
Cooler temperatures are then forecast to move in behind this 
system, bringing at least a brief break from our above average 
stretch by the middle of next week. 

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Low clouds in the southwestern Texas panhandle and west Texas are
spreading northeast. This may move into west central Oklahoma, but
the potential of moving affecting KWWR and KCSM is low (20
percent) so will not include in the TAFs, but will be watching
trends this morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
Southerly winds will increase during the daylight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  62  82  61 /   0   0  10  30 
Hobart OK         82  61  82  60 /   0   0  10  60 
Wichita Falls TX  84  62  83  61 /   0   0  30  50 
Gage OK           80  58  82  57 /   0   0   0  30 
Ponca City OK     83  61  84  61 /   0   0   0  20 
Durant OK         84  63  84  63 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26