Weather alerts for the NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM forecast area

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281122
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
522 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 530 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

 - A brief stretch of drier weather today before rain chances
   return Thursday evening through the weekend. A few storms will
   be capable of heavy rain and localized flooding. Halloween 
   looks mostly dry.

 - Typical temperatures for the end of October with lowland highs
   in the mid to upper 70s, becoming slightly cooler this 
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Flow aloft turns more SW for Wed, bringing moisture back into the
region from the south. A few showers and storms look to develop 
in the afternoon over Hudspeth and the Otero Mesa. Gusts to 40 mph
and brief downpours are possible during the afternoon. Mostly dry
conditions are forecast for El Paso and SW New Mexico with light 
S-SW winds.

Moisture levels rise further for Thu as a shortwave trough pushes
through NW Mexico. PWs climb towards 1" during the day, focusing 
over SE areas for rain chances and flash flood concerns. Scattered
showers and isolated storms are forecast with repeated rounds of 
activity possible into the overnight. Isolated rain amounts of 
1-2" are likely through Thu night, favoring E of the US 54 
corridor. Most likely rainfall is 0.1-0.25". Gusty winds and small
hail are possible as instability and shear will be low compared 
to what we saw last week with our severe event. The flood threat 
lowers as you go west. This system exits Fri AM with a weaker 
shortwave arriving behind it Fri night. This will bring more 
scattered showers mainly to western areas Fri afternoon and night.
The flood threat shouldn't be as high late Fri with this 
disturbance with generally light rain rates expected. 

Halloween dries out as a weak ridge translates over the region. 
Mostly cloudy skies are forecast for Sat with seasonal temps and 
light SW winds. Another Pacific trough moves into the Desert SW on
Sun, bringing record moisture to the region. PWs are modeled to 
reach near 1.2", which is 3-4 std deviations above normal (0.45").
Rain chances and the flood threat will favor western areas and 
the high terrain through Sun night with lower chances for Texas. 
Breezy W winds also look to accompany the low Sun/Mon with cooler 
temps behind the Pacific front. A quiet, dry stretch of weather is
modeled into the middle of next week as upper ridging builds from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VMC through forecast period. Light and variable surface winds 
this morning, becoming 170-200 AOB 8 knots this afternoon. Skies 
SKC-FEW250, becoming FEW070, SCT-BKN250 this evening. Very 
isolated TS east of KELP after sunset tonight, with no direct 
impacts to local terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dry weather today with mostly sunny skies. SSW winds 5 to 10 mph 
this afternoon, leading to a few hours of Good vent rates.

Scattered rain showers developing Thursday afternoon will bring 
wetting precipitation to most of Gila and Lincoln NF through 
Friday. A few storms could be capable of heavy rain and flooding, 
especially within mountain canyons and creeks. Rain chances will 
continue through Sunday, with a stretch of drier weather next 
week. ERCs are very low at the moment, so no fire danger expected 
into early November.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  59  77  58  74 /  10  40  50  10 
Sierra Blanca            54  72  52  71 /  20  60  70  10 
Las Cruces               54  76  53  72 /  10  20  50  10 
Alamogordo               54  75  52  72 /  10  40  60  30 
Cloudcroft               40  56  39  52 /  10  60  60  60 
Truth or Consequences    50  75  53  72 /   0  20  60  20 
Silver City              49  72  49  68 /   0  20  50  40 
Deming                   53  77  53  74 /   0  10  50  10 
Lordsburg                54  77  55  73 /   0  10  30  20 
West El Paso Metro       61  76  60  73 /  10  40  50  10 
Dell City                55  75  55  73 /  10  30  70  30 
Fort Hancock             61  80  59  78 /  10  50  70  10 
Loma Linda               55  70  52  67 /   0  30  70  20 
Fabens                   59  79  58  76 /   0  40  60  10 
Santa Teresa             57  76  56  72 /  10  40  50  10 
White Sands HQ           58  77  57  74 /  10  40  60  20 
Jornada Range            55  76  54  73 /  10  30  50  20 
Hatch                    54  79  55  76 /  10  30  50  10 
Columbus                 56  78  57  75 /   0  10  40  10 
Orogrande                54  75  53  71 /  10  30  60  20 
Mayhill                  45  66  45  62 /   0  50  70  70 
Mescalero                44  67  44  63 /  10  60  60  60 
Timberon                 43  64  41  61 /  10  40  70  50 
Winston                  42  68  45  66 /   0  20  50  40 
Hillsboro                52  74  52  72 /   0  30  60  30 
Spaceport                52  75  52  72 /  10  30  50  20 
Lake Roberts             43  72  44  68 /   0  20  50  50 
Hurley                   47  74  48  70 /   0  20  50  30 
Cliff                    50  79  53  75 /   0  30  50  40 
Mule Creek               48  75  50  70 /   0  20  40  50 
Faywood                  50  73  51  69 /   0  20  50  30 
Animas                   54  78  55  75 /   0  20  30  30 
Hachita                  53  77  53  74 /   0  10  40  10 
Antelope Wells           54  77  53  75 /   0  20  50  10 
Cloverdale               52  74  52  69 /   0  20  30  20 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt