Weather alerts for the NWS Tulsa OK forecast area

000
FXUS64 KTSA 281056
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
556 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 553 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

 - Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather
   will continue through Thursday.

 - Rain chances increase late Thursday night through Saturday. 

 - Potential for stronger storm system early next week but
   uncertainty remains high.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Broad southwesterly flow aloft remains established across the
Southern Plains, ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. A subtle 
shortwave trough overnight tonight may aid in a deeper plume of 
moisture that may spread across portions of northeast Oklahoma 
before or around sunrise Wednesday. A few light rain showers may 
be squeezed out from this passing wave, but overall rain chances 
and impacts remain very low at this time.

At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient from high pressure
over the Southeast CONUS and deepening lee cyclogenesis along the
High Plains will result in an increased bump in southerly winds 
through the daytime on Wednesday. Expect sustained wind speeds 
around 10-15 mph, with gusts around 25 mph. This slight increase 
in winds will cause limited grassland fire spread rates through 
the afternoon, especially north of I-40 where winds will be
breeziest. Afternoon high temperatures will climb to near 80F or 
lower 80s underneath partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Above-average high temperatures and predominantly dry conditions
will remain the primary story through Thursday beneath broad 
southwesterly flow aloft. Highs on Thursday will generally top 
out in the lower to middle 80s, running about 15 degrees above 
seasonal normals. 

Rain chances will begin to increase from west to east late 
Thursday night into Friday as an initial shortwave disturbance 
lifts northeast out of west Texas. Multi-model guidance, along 
with global ensemble means, and the NBM depict modest moisture 
return ahead of this shortwave. Scattered showers are expected to 
spread eastward, initially across east-central Oklahoma during the
daytime Friday, before spreading into far eastern Oklahoma and 
northwest Arkansas by Friday evening/night. The NBM continues to 
carry the highest chances of PoPs (40-70%) Saturday morning and 
into the early afternoon, before significantly decreasing by 
Saturday evening. Severe weather potential remains unlikely, given
very marginal instability. In fact, thunder will be hard to come 
by through at least the upcoming weekend. Rainfall amounts should 
mainly stay below one inch through the weekend. 

A brief lull in precipitation coverage is anticipated Sunday into
Sunday night as the lead wave departs into the Mid-Mississippi 
Valley and shortwave ridging moves across the area. By Sunday 
night and into Monday morning, a potentially stronger, more 
amplified synoptic trough/cut-off low pushes into the central 
CONUS. While deterministic runs and other guidance continue to 
show considerable run-to-run spread regarding the exact timing, 
depth, and trajectory of this secondary upper-level disturbance, 
confidence is increasing in renewed, more widespread shower and 
thunderstorm chances ahead of an associated surface cold front 
early next week (Monday into Tuesday timeframe). Given high 
model/ensemble variance, have stayed close to NBM baseline PoPs 
(40-70%) for Monday into Tuesday. A transition to cooler, more 
seasonable temperatures is expected behind the front toward the 
end of the forecast period.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Broken mid cloud this morning across
NE OK will scatter out by midday. There may be a few cu during the
afternoon in the moisture return down south at KMLC. Aside from
this, clear skies are expected. South winds will pick by mid to
late morning, with gusts near 20 kts at the NE OK sites. Winds
will subside again this evening.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  61  85  62 /   0   0   0  10 
FSM   85  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   82  60  84  61 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   82  57  84  57 /  10   0   0  10 
FYV   80  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   80  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   82  59  84  61 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   80  59  82  60 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   82  60  84  61 /   0   0   0  10 
HHW   82  61  84  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30