Weather alerts for the NWS Austin/San Antonio TX forecast area

000
FXUS64 KEWX 281059
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
559 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Spotty showers with an isolated storm or two expected today.

- Locally heavy rain Thursday into Friday, primarily along the Rio
  Grande into the southern Edwards Plateau.

- Mild and humid conditions to continue into the start of November
  before a cold front could usher in a cooler airmass around 
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Little change in the overall weather pattern with a southwesterly 
flow holding aloft, while a humid, but modest, southeasterly low-
level flow maintains off the Gulf. The humid conditions result in 
considerable cloudiness across the region, especially nocturnally 
through each morning. Late overnight into early this morning could 
see some patchy drizzle and minor reductions in visibility occur 
along and near the Balcones Escarpment. Additionally, isolated 
streamer showers may advance north-northwestward across the region 
as well from the morning into the early afternoon. Spotty showers 
and an isolated storm or two stay possible during the afternoon, 
given the moisture and limited but sufficient daytime heating. 
Expect activity to fade into the evening, with focus then shifting 
towards the west as highlighted in the paragraph below. Daytime 
highs across the region look to trend from the mid-to-upper 70s in 
the Hill Country to the low-to-mid 80s elsewhere.

After midnight tonight into Thursday, shortwave energy and moisture 
aloft, which at least is partially ripped off from Vance across the 
Eastern Pacific, becomes embedded within the southwesterly flow 
aloft and enters into the region. This leads to a further uptick in 
the area PWATs, especially along and to the west of the US highway 
281 corridor, to around or greater than the 95 percentile range for 
the time of the year, with values climbing above 1.75 inches. The 
initial rain, mostly consisting of light to moderate intensity, will 
look to reach the Rio Grande prior to sunrise and may push as far 
east as into portions of the I-35 corridor throughout the day on 
Thursday. The rain looks like it is going to struggle on getting any 
farther east, where much of the Coastal Plains may be shut out from 
getting much rain at all on Thursday. The strongest forcing is then 
expected to establish late in the day through Thursday night with 
the axis of heaviest rain focusing from the southern Edwards 
Plateau northward across the Concho Valley into the Texas 
panhandle. WPC continues to highlight this region in the slight 
(Level 2 of 4) risk for rainfall that could exceed flash flood 
guidance Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches are possible within that region. The 
highest totals will concentrate over Val Verde County with a sharp
drop off starting around Uvalde, with the majority of the CWA 
seeing around an 1/2 inch or less. Cloud cover and area rains will
keep most locations with daytime highs in the 70s Thursday while 
the drier locations along and east of I-35 into the Coastal Plains
reach into the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Activity, including the lingering risk for locally heavy rain for 
the southern Edwards Plateau, persists into Friday morning, with 
conditions then drying out into and through the afternoon in the 
wake of the exiting shortwave. However, a secondary but weaker 
shortwave then advances from west to east in the flow aloft from 
Friday night into Halloween Saturday. This may produce additional 
isolated to scattered showers and a few storms from the Southern 
Edwards Plateau through the Hill Country. The good news is that 
models indicate that the rain chances look to diminish by the 
evening for the trick-or-treaters. 

The remainder of the weekend and into the day on Monday primarily 
remains rain free. Sunday and Monday should also trend with the 
warmest afternoons of the week with more ample sunshine. Daytime 
highs range from the low 80s in the Hill Country to the mid and 
upper 80s elsewhere. Overnights remain mild and humid.

While there are key differences within the medium range guidance, a 
majority of the members do indicate that a more progressive upper 
level storm system may take shape and advance across the Desert 
Southwest into the Southern Plains early next week. This could 
provide the opportunity to drag a cold front across the area with 
another chance for rain and storms. Local convective parameters 
could support some organized convection; we'll monitor as we get 
closer in time. Otherwise, a north-northwesterly flow behind the 
front should help to usher in a drier and cooler airmass into the 
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Patchy to areas to isolated dense fog are developing to the east 
of KAUS as of 11Z. This activity is forecast to stay away from the
I-35 terminals this morning. However, IFR cigs are affecting KSAT
and KSSF and shortly KAUS. These low cigs remain for several 
hours before lifting to MVFR between 16Z and 18Z. VFR cigs come
back for the rest of the afternoon and evening. For KDRT, I have a
TEMPO group from 12Z to 16Z for MVFR cigs. After that period, VFR
conditions return. A southeast flow of 5 to 10 knots is forecast
through the forecast period. May see some gusts 15 to 20 knots for
KDRT from time to time this afternoon. MVFR and IFR likely
returning for the San Antonio area late tonight into Thursday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              84  66  79  63 /  30  10  20  10 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  84  66  80  63 /  30  10  10  10 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  66  80  63 /  30  10  30  10 
Burnet Muni Airport            81  65  75  61 /  20  10  30  20 
Del Rio Intl Airport           83  67  74  64 /  10  40  80  90 
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  65  78  62 /  30  10  10  10 
Hondo Muni Airport             84  68  78  64 /  20  20  60  40 
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  65  80  62 /  30  10  20  10 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  65  83  63 /  40  10   0   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  67  79  64 /  20  10  40  20 
Stinson Muni Airport           85  68  80  65 /  20  10  30  20 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...17