Advisories

Genevieve

39 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 039 Aug 2, 08:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 038 Aug 2, 02:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Aug 2, 08:31 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Aug 2, 02:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Aug 1, 08:32 PM UTC
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 012032
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 01 2026

The organization of Genevieve hasnt changed much during the past 6 
h.  GOES-18 daytime visible imagery indicates that the low-level 
center is exposed to the west of the main convective area.  The 
latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is 
2.5/35 kt, and recent objective satellite intensity estimates range 
from about 35-40 kt.  The initial intensity will remain 40 kt for 
this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 12 kt, which is 
unchanged from 6 h ago.  This general motion will continue through 
the end of the weekend as a low- to mid-level ridge remains north of 
the cyclone.  By Monday, a gradual turn to the northwest and 
north-northwest is expected as the ridge weakens north of the 
cyclone due to a deep-layer low/trough that will be located to the 
north-northwest of Genevieve.  Very little change was made to the 
previous NHC track forecast, which lies close to the latest Google 
DeepMind Ensemble Mean and HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA).  The 
track guidance remains tightly clustered, so there is high 
confidence in the track forecast.

Genevieve is starting to enter cooler sea-surface temperatures 
(SSTs) now, with SSTs between 24-25C.  The cyclone will reach SSTs 
lower than 24C in about 12h.  Genevieve is currently moving within 
an environment of weak vertical wind shear dry, stable air.  
Southwesterly vertical wind shear will then increase to moderate 
levels (15-20 kt) by 24 h while the environment remains dry and 
stable. These conditions will lead to continued gradual weakening, 
and Genevieve is likely to lose its convection and become post 
tropical by 36 h.  Thereafter, the remnant low should gradually spin 
down with dissipation occurring by 96 h, as depicted by the global 
models.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 23.3N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 23.9N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 24.8N 139.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 25.8N 141.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  03/1800Z 26.7N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0600Z 27.8N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z 28.9N 145.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 
NHC Advisory 034 Aug 1, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Aug 1, 08:45 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Aug 1, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Jul 31, 08:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Jul 31, 02:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Jul 31, 08:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Jul 31, 02:48 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Jul 30, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Jul 30, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Jul 30, 08:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Jul 30, 02:43 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Jul 29, 08:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Jul 29, 02:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Jul 29, 08:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Jul 29, 02:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Jul 29, 12:03 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Jul 28, 08:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Jul 28, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Jul 28, 08:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Jul 28, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Jul 27, 08:50 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Jul 27, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Jul 27, 08:48 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Jul 27, 02:48 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Jul 26, 08:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Jul 26, 02:50 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Jul 26, 08:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Jul 26, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Jul 25, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Jul 25, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Jul 25, 08:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Jul 25, 02:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Jul 24, 08:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Jul 24, 02:37 PM UTC