Advisories

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 312034
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 31 2026
 
Genevieve remains comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds with some convective banding near the center and in the
western quadrant. A synthetic aperture radar overpass a few hours 
ago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt range. Based on this and 
continuity from the previous advisory, the initial intensity 
remains 50 kt.
 
The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 285/14 kt. 
A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should 
steer it generally west-northwestward for the next two to three 
days. After that, a turn more toward the northwest is forecast due 
to the ridge breaking in response to a mid- to upper-level trough 
forming north of 20N between 140-160W. The track guidance is showing 
some spread after 72 h, with the UKMET, HWRF, and HAFS models 
showing a more west-northwesterly motion, while the GFS, ECMWF, the 
HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), and the Google DeepMind ensemble 
mean (GDMI) showing a more northwesterly motion. These latter models 
are very close to the previous forecast track, and the new forecast 
track follows their guidance. Overall, the guidance envelope has 
shifted a little westward, and thus the new forecast track is a 
little west of the previous track.

Sea surface temperature analyses indicate that Genevieve should 
pass near or over a small patch of warmer water with temperatures 
near 25C during the next 12-18 h. The intensity guidance suggests 
this should slow the ongoing weakening, and the intensity forecast 
shows only a slight weakening during the first 24 h. A steady 
weakening should resume as the cyclone again moves over decreasing 
sea surface temperatures.  The new intensity forecast again calls 
for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 60 h as the 
associated convection dissipates.  The global models remain in good
agreement that the remnant low will persist for several days, 
and this is reflected in the forecast. It should be noted that if 
the convection does not persist during Genevieve's passage over the 
warmer water, the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low earlier 
than currently forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 22.3N 130.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 22.8N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 23.6N 135.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 24.4N 138.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 25.4N 140.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 26.4N 142.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1800Z 27.6N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1800Z 30.3N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z 33.7N 148.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven