Advisories

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 290834
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026
 
The eye of Genevieve is no longer apparent in conventional satellite 
imagery. The center is embedded underneath a central dense overcast 
with very cold cloud top temperatures of -70 to -75 deg C. 
Proxy-visible and infrared satellite images show that northwesterly 
shear is restricting upper-level outflow on the west side of the 
hurricane. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation and 
decreasing satellite intensity estimates (including a T5.5/102 kt 
Dvorak CI from TAFB), the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt. 
The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were updated based on a recent ASCAT-C 
pass over the hurricane.
 
Genevieve is moving west-northwestward (285/8 kt) along the 
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States and northern Mexico. This steering ridge 
is forecast to strengthen and build westward over the next several 
days, which should keep Genevieve on a west-northwestward heading 
with some increase in forward speed late this week and through the 
weekend. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the 
previous one, generally falling between the latest corrected (HCCA) 
and simple (TVCN) consensus aids.

The hurricane is experiencing moderate northwesterly shear that will 
persist for the next 12-24 h while it moves over gradually 
decreasing SSTs. By the time the shear is forecast to relent, 
Genevieve will likely have already crossed the 26 deg C isotherm and 
moved into a somewhat drier environment. The latest intensity 
guidance suggests additional strengthening is unlikely, and the 
updated NHC prediction shows Genevieve weakening through the 
forecast period. The largest downward adjustments to the forecast 
were made in the first 48 h, though NHC still lies on the upper end 
of the guidance. The system is forecast to fall below hurricane 
strength on Friday and become post-tropical at day 4, when the GFS 
and ECMWF indicate that strengthening shear will make it difficult 
for the system to sustain organized convection over sub-24 C waters.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 18.4N 118.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 18.8N 119.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 20.2N 124.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 21.0N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 21.8N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 22.5N 132.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 24.2N 138.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  03/0600Z 26.0N 143.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart