Advisories

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010234
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
500 PM HST Fri Jul 31 2026

Genevieve continues to gradually lose convection in the inner-core 
of the cyclone as seen in visible and infrared satellite imagery. In 
addition, water vapor imagery shows evidence of dry air mixing into 
the core. An OSCAT pass from 2043 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 
40 kt. The objective intensity estimates continue to trend 
gradually downward, with a range of 33-50 kt, and the most recent 
intensity estimate from TAFB is CI 3.0/45 kt.  Thus, based on all of 
the current given data, the initial intensity has been set to 45 kt 
this advisory.
 
The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. 
A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should 
steer it generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days. 
After that, a turn more toward the northwest is forecast due to the 
ridge breaking in response to a mid- to upper-level trough forming 
to the northwest of Genevieve. While the track guidance is generally 
tightly clustered for the next 72 h, it is a bit slower than the 
previous cycle. Thus, the NHC track forecast has been slowed 
slightly to reflect the evolving track guidance. After 72 h, this 
guidance does have larger spread, though overall, only slight 
changes have been made to the NHC forecast compared to the previous 
track.

The intensity forecast shows slightly more weakening than the 
previous forecast to reflect a storm with a lower initial intensity. 
However the overall trend remains the same. Genevieve is still 
expected to move over a small patch of warmer water with sea surface 
temperatures around 25C, which may temper the weakening rate over 
the next 24 h to 36 h. Once the cyclone has moved into a region of 
even cooler ocean temperatures, Genevieve is expected to become 
post-tropical cyclone at around 48 h. It remains possible that 
Genevieve could lose convective organization sooner, resulting in 
the storm becoming post-tropical faster than currently forecast this 
advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is roughly in the middle of the 
guidance envelope.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 22.6N 131.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 23.1N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 23.9N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 24.8N 138.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 25.8N 141.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  03/1200Z 26.8N 143.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0000Z 27.8N 144.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z 30.7N 146.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin