Advisories

Genevieve

39 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 039 Aug 2, 08:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 038 Aug 2, 02:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Aug 2, 08:31 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Aug 2, 02:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Aug 1, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Aug 1, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Aug 1, 08:45 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Aug 1, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Jul 31, 08:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Jul 31, 02:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Jul 31, 08:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Jul 31, 02:48 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Jul 30, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Jul 30, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Jul 30, 08:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Jul 30, 02:43 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Jul 29, 08:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Jul 29, 02:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Jul 29, 08:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Jul 29, 02:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Jul 29, 12:03 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Jul 28, 08:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Jul 28, 02:37 PM UTC
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 281437
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
 
The eye of Genevieve has become slightly ragged and is wobbling this 
morning, and the temperature in the eye is now below 0 C. An earlier 
SSMIS pass over the hurricane showed the affects of weak northerly 
wind shear and some erosion of the structure in the northwest 
quadrant. However, colder eyewall cloud top temperatures are 
wrapping back around the northern and western side of the eye, due 
to an uptick in convection as noted on first light visible satellite 
imagery, indicating that a small fluctuation in intensity may be 
occurring over the past hour or so. The subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimate from TAFB was 6.0/115 kt, while the objective estimates 
range from 96-114 kt. The initial intensity is set at 110 kt for 
this advisory. 

Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, guided 
by a stout mid and upper-level ridge centered over the southwestern 
United States. A slight increase in forward speed is forecast later 
this week as the ridge expands westward, and a strong trough 
approaches the west coast of the U.S. The latest NHC forecast lies 
within the tightly clustered guidance, and is closest to HCCA and 
the Google DeepMind solutions. 

Small fluctuations in intensity will be possible today. The 
Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle (MPERC) 
guidance indicates a 33 percent chance of an eyewall replacement 
cycle over the next 24 h. However, a gradual weakening trend is 
expected during the remainder of the week as the hurricane moves 
into cooler waters and encounters drier mid-level air. On Thursday, 
Genevieve is forecast to cross north of 20N into an area with cool 
waters less than 26 C, and more pronounced weakening will commence 
and continue into this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast lies near 
the middle of the guidance envelope, and calls for Genevieve to fall 
below hurricane strength in a couple of days and become 
post-tropical this weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 17.9N 116.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 18.3N 117.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 19.5N 120.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  31/0000Z 20.9N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 21.6N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 23.1N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 24.9N 138.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven
 
NHC Advisory 016 Jul 28, 08:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Jul 28, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Jul 27, 08:50 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Jul 27, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Jul 27, 08:48 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Jul 27, 02:48 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Jul 26, 08:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Jul 26, 02:50 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Jul 26, 08:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Jul 26, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Jul 25, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Jul 25, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Jul 25, 08:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Jul 25, 02:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Jul 24, 08:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Jul 24, 02:37 PM UTC