Advisories

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 011435
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
500 AM HST Sat Aug 01 2026

Genevieves deep convection has been gradually decreasing over the 
past day or so, and there is now only a relatively small area of 
cloud tops colder than -30C, mainly in the northeast quadrant.  
However, a 1032 UTC AMSR-2 pass indicates that a relatively large 
area of shallow to moderate convection persists, and is wrapped 
halfway around the low-level center over the northeast semicircle.  
The subjective current intensity (CI) estimate from TAFB has 
decreased to 2.5/35 kt.  The latest objective AiDT, D-PRINT, D-MINT 
and SATCON intensity estimates range from 37-42 kt.  Given the 
latest intensity estimates, the initial intensity is brought down to 
40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt.  
This general motion will continue over the weekend as a low- to
mid-level ridge remains north of the cyclone.  By Monday, a gradual 
turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected as the ridge 
weakens north of the cyclone due to a deep-layer low/trough that 
will be located off to the north-northwest of Genevieve.  Very 
little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, which 
lies close to the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean.  The track 
guidance remains tightly clustered through day 3, so there is high 
confidence in the track forecast.

Genevieve has been traversing 25-26C sea-surface temperatures 
(SSTs), while under weak vertical wind shear and within a relatively 
dry, stable environment.  The cyclone will move over progressively 
colder SSTs over the next 18 h or so (below 24C by that time).  
Southwesterly vertical wind shear will then increase to moderate 
levels (15-20 kt) in 24-36 h while the environment remains dry and 
stable. These conditions will lead to continued gradual weakening, 
and Genevieve is likely to lose its convection and become 
post-tropical in about 36 h.  Thereafter, the remnant low should 
gradually spin down with dissipation occurring just after 96 h, as 
depicted by the global models.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 23.0N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 23.6N 135.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 24.5N 138.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 25.5N 140.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  03/1200Z 26.4N 143.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  04/0000Z 27.4N 144.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1200Z 28.4N 145.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z 31.1N 146.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen