Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 250238
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's overall structure has 
changed little during the past several hours. The hurricane 
continues to exhibit a well-defined and fairly symmetric inner core, 
with a closed ring of deep convection surrounding the eye and 
well-established upper-level outflow. The latest subjective Dvorak 
estimates from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS 
range from around 80 to 90 kt. Based on a blend of the available 
intensity estimates and the satellite presentation, the initial 
intensity is maintained at 90 kt.
 
The initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. A strong subtropical ridge 
is forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto through the 
forecast period, steering the cyclone generally westward during the 
next several days. The latest track guidance remains tightly 
clustered through about 72 hours, with somewhat greater spread 
developing thereafter as the storm approaches the Hawaiian Islands. 
The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies 
between the multi-model consensus (HCCA) to the north and the ECMWF 
to the south. Although the current forecast brings Fausto just north 
of the Hawaiian Islands during the Tuesday through Wednesday time 
frame, the islands remains well within the typical day 4-5 track 
error envelope, and interests across the state should continue to 
monitor the progress of the hurricane.
 
Fausto is expected to maintain a well-organized inner core into 
Saturday while remaining over warm waters in a relatively favorable 
environment. Thereafter, progressively cooler sea surface 
temperatures, a drier surrounding environment, and increasing 
westerly vertical wind shear by early next week should initiate a 
gradual weakening trend. Simulated satellite imagery depicts a 
similar evolution, maintaining a well-defined cyclone into Saturday 
before gradually eroding the convective structure late this weekend 
into early next week. By the time Fausto approaches the Hawaiian 
Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening tropical storm with the 
deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced from the 
low-level center. The NHC intensity forecast is little changed from 
the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the 
Hawaiian Islands early next week, uncertainty remains regarding its 
exact track and intensity. The current forecast brings the center 
just north of the islands, but a track farther south would result in 
a greater risk of stronger winds and heavier rainfall. Interests 
across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
 
2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the 
Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing 
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to 
begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the 
state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and 
continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves 
into the area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 18.7N 133.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 19.0N 135.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 19.4N 138.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 19.7N 140.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 20.0N 142.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 20.3N 145.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 20.8N 148.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 21.9N 154.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 22.6N 159.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans/Pierce