Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 230835
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
 
Fausto's satellite appearance has become rather ragged since the 
previous advisory. Proxy-vis and infrared imagery show a ragged eye 
feature, with much of the convection on the western side of the 
system eroded by drier air. Cloud tops have started to warm as well. 
That being said, a 0600 UTC ASCAT-C scatterometer pass showed 
satellite-derived winds around 58 kt, though given the instrument's 
undersampling bias, peak winds are likely higher. Satellite 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 53 to 68 kt, and the CI 
value from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, although the data-T value did drop to 
T4.0/65 kt for this advisory. Taking all this into account, the 
initial intensity for this advisory is held at 70 kt, although that 
could be generous given the degrading satellite appearance.
 
The system has started to increase in forward speed and is moving at 
an estimated motion of 285/10 kt. Fausto should continue to move 
west-northwestward to westward along the southern edge of a 
strengthening ridge to the north of the system. The track model 
guidance is in fairly good agreement through day 3. Beyond that 
period, there is increasing along-track spread, with the GDMI and 
HCCA guidance farther south and much faster than the rest of the 
model guidance, with the GFS being the slowest and farther north. 
The difference is about 300 n mi between the GFS and GDMI solutions. 
The official NHC forecast continues to trend toward the faster HCCA 
corrected-consensus and GDMI model solutions.
 
Fausto will remain in a low-shear environment, tracking parallel to 
the 26C27C isotherms. The primary inhibiting factor will be the dry 
air that lies ahead, with mid-level relative humidity values 
dropping below 50 percent in 23 days. The system has already been 
periodically ingesting dry air from the north and west over the last 
day or so. This will lead to a gradual weakening trend, and the 
intensity forecast is highly sensitive to how well Fausto can fend 
off dry air from intruding into the inner core. The NHC intensity 
forecast calls for gradual weakening throughout the period, although 
fluctuations in intensity are possible. This forecast lies near the 
higher end of the model guidance, as some models move the system 
farther north and weaken it more quickly. It should be noted any 
northward track deviations would cause Fausto to weaken even faster 
than currently forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 17.8N 124.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 18.3N 128.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 18.6N 131.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 18.8N 134.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 19.1N 136.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 19.5N 139.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 19.8N 144.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 20.5N 149.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly