Hurricane Fausto

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 260848
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's convective structure has 
begun to gradually deteriorate during the past several hours. 
Mid-level dry air has become increasingly entrained into the 
circulation, resulting in the erosion of deep convection over the 
eastern semicircle. Recent microwave imagery also suggests erosion 
of portions of the eyewall. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while objective intensity 
estimates from UW-CIMSS generally range from 75 to 85 kt. Given the 
recent degradation in the satellite presentation, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 80 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft and a NOAA aircraft are scheduled to investigate Fausto on 
Sunday. The reconnaissance data should help improve confidence in 
subsequent track and intensity forecasts.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be 280/11 kt as Fausto moves into 
the central Pacific basin. This general motion is expected to 
continue during the next several days as a strong subtropical ridge 
remains positioned north of the cyclone. The latest track guidance 
remains in good agreement through 72 h, with some increase in 
cross-track spread thereafter as Fausto passes north of the Hawaiian 
Islands. The NHC forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous 
advisory, and closely follows the multi-model consensus (HCCA).
 
Fausto has likely begun a gradual weakening trend as it moves into a 
drier mid-level environment over marginal sea surface temperatures. 
Additionally, southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to 
steadily increase beginning in around 24 h. Simulated satellite 
imagery depicts a similar evolution, with the convective structure 
gradually eroding late Sunday into early next week. By the time 
Fausto moves north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a 
weakening tropical storm, with the deepest convection becoming 
increasingly displaced from the low-level center and the strongest 
winds confined to the northern side of the circulation. The NHC 
intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory and 
remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope.
 
Based on the predicted sheared nature of the storm, the risk of 
sustained tropical-force-winds on land should remain low as long as 
the forecast track stays north of the islands. Interests in Hawaii 
should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the 
Hawaiian Islands early next week. Although confidence is increasing 
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of 
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the 
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the 
Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing 
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to 
steadily build westward across the state over the next few days as 
Fausto approaches and passes to the north.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 19.7N 139.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 20.0N 141.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 20.4N 144.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 21.0N 146.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 21.5N 149.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 22.0N 151.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 22.6N 154.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 23.9N 159.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 25.5N 163.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce/Evans