Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 230236
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
 
Fausto has not changed much over the past several hours.  There have 
been signs of a cloud-filled eye on GOES-18 visible imagery, at 
times, with an impressive central dense overcast along with tight 
banding noted.  Water vapor channels continue to show some dry air 
just to the north, impinging on Fausto.  Subjective Dvorak numbers 
from TAFB are 4.5/75 kt, while objective numbers are wide-ranging 
from 53-81 kt.  Taking a blend of the satellite estimates, the 
initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory.

There is no change to the track forecast reasoning.  The initial 
motion is west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 7 kt.  Fausto should 
speed up soon, in a direction between west and west-northwest, as 
ridging strengthens to the north of the cyclone.  That motion should 
then continue through the remainder of the forecast period.  There 
is notable along-track spread at days 4-5.  The GFS is the slowest 
and farthest north, while the HCCA (corrected consensus) and GDMI 
(Google Deep Mind ensemble mean) are the fastest and farthest south 
models.  The TCVN simple consensus is in between the two camps.  The 
NHC forecast leans much closer to the HCCA and GDMI, but is not 
quite as far south or as fast as those solutions. This forecast is 
nearly identical to the previous NHC forecast.

Fausto will remain in a low shear environment for the next 5 days. 
The cyclone is currently over sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) 
between 26-27C, and those SSTs will decrease slightly to around 26C 
in about 48 h.  Meanwhile, mid-level relative humidities appear 
moist enough for the hurricane to maintain its intensity through 36 
h, despite the current nearby dry air noted just to the north of the 
cyclone.  Fausto will move into a progressively drier environment 
between day 2-4, which should lead to gradual weakening.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is toward the higher side of the guidance for the 
first 48 h.  Thereafter, the forecast lies closer to the middle of 
the intensity guidance envelope.  Given the expected mid-level 
relative humidities in the 30 to 40 percent range from days 4-5, it 
is likely that Fausto will weaken to a tropical storm by the end of 
the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 17.5N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 17.7N 124.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 18.0N 127.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 18.3N 130.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 18.6N 132.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 18.9N 135.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 19.2N 137.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 19.9N 142.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 20.6N 147.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen