Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 202047
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026
 
A microwave pass that occurred around 1330 UTC showed that the 
center was north of the convection at that time. The recent 
subjective Dvorak fix from TAFB was 3.5/55 kt. A recent ASCAT-C 
pass shows several vectors over 50 kts and that the inner core 
is becoming better organized.  Most recent satellite images have 
also shown that the convection is becoming better organized over 
the low-level center of Fausto. Based on the ASCAT pass and the 
improved satellite presentation over the past several hours, the 
initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory.
 
Fausto should move into a region of lighter shear while remaining in
a moist environment over warm sea-surface temperatures. The SHIPS
model suggests that rapid intensification is still possible. The
timing and possibility of the intensification will be tied to how
quickly the system is able to get organized. The current NHC
intensity forecast is slightly slower than the previous advisory
and remains still on the higher end of the model guidance. 
The current NHC forecast does have Fausto becoming a hurricane by 
tomorrow and start to approach major hurricane status in a couple of 
days. Gradual weakening is expected toward the end of the week once 
Fausto moves into an environment of progressively cooler waters and 
drier air.
 
The storm is slowly gaining latitude, with the initial motion
estimated to be 305/9 kt.  Fausto will continue to move toward the
northwest and slow down during the next day or two as it tracks
toward a weakness in the ridge left behind by Elida.  By Wednesday,
however, the global models show the ridge strengthening northeast of
the system, and that should cause Fausto to move faster to the
west-northwest and continue in that direction into the weekend. The
current NHC track has been slightly adjusted to the right of the
previous track, but remains within the middle of the guidance
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 14.2N 116.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 15.1N 117.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 16.0N 119.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 17.0N 122.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 17.4N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 18.5N 132.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 19.4N 137.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen