Advisories

Fay

39 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 039 Sep 29, 08:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 038 Sep 29, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Sep 29, 08:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Sep 29, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Sep 28, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Sep 28, 02:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Sep 28, 08:48 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Sep 28, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Sep 27, 08:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Sep 27, 02:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Sep 27, 08:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Sep 27, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Sep 26, 08:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Sep 26, 02:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Sep 26, 08:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Sep 26, 02:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Sep 25, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Sep 25, 02:45 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Sep 25, 08:47 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Sep 25, 02:49 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Sep 24, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Sep 24, 02:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Sep 24, 08:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Sep 24, 02:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Sep 23, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Sep 22, 08:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Sep 22, 02:47 PM UTC
000
WTNT41 KNHC 221447
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

Fay is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds 
with no convection. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the 
maximum winds are now near 30 kt, and based on this the cyclone is 
downgraded to a tropical depression. Unless convection comes back 
in the next several hours, Fay should degenerate into a remnant low 
later today.

The system is moving southwestward, or 230/9 kt, as it rounds the
eastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west. A turn 
toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the 
next day or two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the 
north of Fay. Due to a slight southward shift in the guidance 
envelope, the new track forecast is a little south of the previous 
forecast.

Currently, Fay is in an environment of moderate northwesterly shear 
and dry air entrainment. While the dynamical models forecast the 
shear to subside during the next 24 h, they also forecast strong 
upper-level convergence over the system and continued dry air 
entrainment. Based on this and the model simulated satellite 
imagery, it appears unlikely that Fay will re-develop persistent 
organized convection after the shear decreases. Thus, the new 
intensity forecast follows the old forecast in showing a gradual 
weakening of the remnant low until dissipation near 120 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 31.1N  34.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 30.5N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z 29.9N  37.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 29.5N  39.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 29.4N  41.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0000Z 29.5N  43.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 29.5N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z 30.0N  46.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NHC Advisory 012 Sep 22, 08:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Sep 22, 02:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Sep 21, 08:36 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Sep 21, 02:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Sep 21, 08:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Sep 21, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Sep 20, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Sep 20, 02:56 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Sep 20, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Sep 20, 02:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Sep 19, 08:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Sep 19, 02:49 PM UTC