Advisories
Fay39 advisories on record
NHC Advisory 039 Sep 29, 08:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 038 Sep 29, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Sep 29, 08:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Sep 29, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Sep 28, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Sep 28, 02:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Sep 28, 08:48 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Sep 28, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Sep 27, 08:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Sep 27, 02:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Sep 27, 08:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Sep 27, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Sep 26, 08:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Sep 26, 02:38 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Sep 26, 08:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Sep 26, 02:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Sep 25, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Sep 25, 02:45 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Sep 25, 08:47 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Sep 25, 02:49 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Sep 24, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Sep 24, 02:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Sep 24, 08:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Sep 24, 02:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Sep 23, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Sep 22, 08:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Sep 22, 02:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Sep 22, 08:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Sep 22, 02:33 AM UTC
000 WTNT41 KNHC 220233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026 Fay is feeling the effects of strong west-northwesterly wind shear tonight. Nearly all of the convection is displaced well to the east of the fully exposed low-level center, and low-level water vapor imagery shows dry air enveloping much of the system. Recent objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased over the past several hours and range from 25-38 kt. Based on the degraded satellite presentation and the downward trend in intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving southwestward, or 215/07 kt, along the southeastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered west of the system. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west is expected over the next few days as the ridge strengthens and expands eastward across the central Atlantic. The official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close to the HCCA solution. Continued weakening is expected on Tuesday as dry mid-level air wraps around the periphery of Fay. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggests that Fay may struggle to maintain organized convection as early as Tuesday, and the system could become post-tropical by that time. However, the strong upper-level trough currently producing significant wind shear over the region is forecast to lift away from Fay over the next day or so, while the cyclone may move over slightly warmer waters in the coming days. These changes could briefly allow for some shallow convection to redevelop around midweek, although any such resurgence is expected to be short-lived. Given the overall unfavorable environment and anticipated weakening, the latest NHC forecast shows Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 32.3N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams
NHC Advisory 010 Sep 21, 08:36 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Sep 21, 02:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Sep 21, 08:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Sep 21, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Sep 20, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Sep 20, 02:56 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Sep 20, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Sep 20, 02:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Sep 19, 08:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Sep 19, 02:49 PM UTC