Advisories

000
WTPA44 PHFO 092035
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  55
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026

Lowell is dealing with moderate wind shear and dry air. Recent 
satellite imagery reveals that earlier deep convection has 
collapsed, with only shallow convection remaining sheared to the 
eastern side of the circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC have decreased to T2.5/35 kt, 
which is consistent with the system's degraded satellite 
presentation. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates currently range 
from 39 to 49 kt. Metop-B and Metop-C scatterometer passes are 
anticipated over Lowell near the advisory time, which will help 
better assess the current intensity and wind radii structure. 
Although current satellite estimates have decreased, the initial 
intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory, which may be generous. 
Subsequent adjustments will await the incoming scatterometer wind 
data.
 
Lowell is expected to remain within a dry environment with moderate 
vertical wind shear. Model-simulated infrared imagery suggests that 
Lowell will continue to produce intermittent bursts of deep 
convection over the next several days, aided by some upper-level 
divergence in about 48 hours. The official NHC intensity forecast 
follows the latest consensus model guidance, depicting a gradual 
weakening of the system throughout the forecast period. By the end 
of the period, the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler sea 
surface temperatures while continuing to deal with dry air and 
moderate shear. Although some uncertainty remains late in the period 
due to the system's eventual track and intermittent convective 
bursts, these hostile environmental conditions should cause Lowell 
to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.  
  
The initial motion is northwestward, or 320/12 kt. Lowell should 
gradually turn west-northwestward and then westward, steered by a 
building mid-level ridge to the north and east. In a few days, the 
cyclone is forecast to round the western periphery of the ridge and 
slow forward speed. This decrease in forward speed will occur as the 
steering pattern collapses, leaving Lowell caught between 
high-pressure ridges over the northwestern and northeastern Pacific. 
Track model guidance begins to diverge considerably late in the 
period. This spread in the guidance largely depends on the vertical 
depth of the cyclone, and if the system remains a shallow low, it 
could begin to move southwestward, steered by the low-level flow on 
the eastern edge of the northwestern Pacific ridge. The official NHC 
track forecast lies near the HCCA and GDMI consensus aids in the 
near term, and then shifts toward the simple consensus later in the 
period, reflecting the higher uncertainty toward the end of the 
forecast cycle.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 28.9N 163.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 29.3N 165.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 29.3N 168.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 29.3N 170.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 29.9N 171.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 30.9N 171.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 32.3N 172.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 33.2N 174.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  14/1800Z 32.7N 176.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly