Advisories

000
WTPA34 PHFO 071451
TCPCP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number  46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Sep 07 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR OAHU WITH LOWELL...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 162.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Oahu.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Oahu
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.
Any additional eastward shifts in the forecast would require the
issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for Oahu.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands and the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the
progress of Lowell.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 162.6 West. Lowell is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north-
northeastward to northward motion at a faster forward speed is
forecast through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of
Lowell is expected to near or just west of Niihau tonight and early
Tuesday. Lowell is then forecast to turn toward the northwest and
slow down by early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Gradual weakening is expected through
Tuesday. However, Lowell is forecast to remain a hurricane as it
passes near the Hawaiian Islands.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
PHFO.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Kauai County beginning
this afternoon or evening. Wind speeds atop and on the windward and
leeward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent
stronger than the near-surface winds.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible on Oahu beginning this afternoon.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon.
 
RAINFALL:  Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce additional
rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches for Kauai, with maximum totals of
16 inches possible. For the Big Island, 4 to 8 inches of rain is
expected with isolated totals of 12 inches possible. For Oahu and
Maui county, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals
of 10 inches possible. This rainfall may produce significant flash
flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions
of the Big Island.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
https://hurricanes.gov/storm_graphics/EP12/EP1226WPCQPF.gif
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Kauai County...2-4 ft, with the highest expected values along the
south coast of Kauai and the island of Niihau
Oahu...Up to 1 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible near Kauai and Niihau
this afternoon through tonight. A few tornadoes are also possible
across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands.
 
SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions during the next several days across
many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown