Advisories

000
WTPA34 PHFO 060232
TCPCP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026
 
...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A NORTHWARD TURN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 163.4W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Kauai County, including
the islands of Kauai and Niihau.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands and the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the
progress of Lowell.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lowell was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 163.4 West. Lowell is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the 
north is expected on Sunday, followed by a north-northeastward 
motion with an increase in forward speed Sunday night and Monday. On 
the forecast track, the center of Lowell will move across portions 
of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just west of the 
main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lowell is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible 
through early Sunday, followed by gradual weakening Sunday and 
Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Kauai County by
late Monday or Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in
eastern portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by
late Monday.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 
4 to 8 inches for Kauai, with maximum totals exceeding 12 inches 
possible. For the Big Island, 2 to 6 inches of rain is expected with 
isolated totals of 10 inches possible. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of 
rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. 
Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible. 
This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, 
especially on Kauai and portions of the Big Island.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep12.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Kauai County...1-3 ft
Oahu...Up to 1 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions during the next several days across
many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs