Advisories

000
WTPA34 PHFO 062046
TCPCP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number  43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026
 
...LOWELL TURNS TO THE NORTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU BY LATE
MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 163.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands and the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the
progress of Lowell.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lowell was located 
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 163.7 West. Lowell is moving 
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northward to 
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected 
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lowell will 
move across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National 
Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night. 
Lowell is forecast to turn toward the northwest and slow down by 
early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected 
through today, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight. 
Lowell is expected to remain a hurricane while passing near Hawaii.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 948 mb 
(28.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Kauai County by
Monday afternoon or evening. Wind speeds atop and on the windward
and leeward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent
stronger than the near-surface winds, and wind gusts to hurricane
force are possible. 

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine 
National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals Monday 
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10 
inches for Kauai, with maximum totals of 14 inches possible. For 
the Big Island, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated
totals of 12 inches possible. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is
expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across
the remaining islands, rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible. This
rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides,
especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep12.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Kauai County...1-3 ft
Oahu...Up to 1 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible near Kauai and Niihau
Monday afternoon through Monday night. A few tornadoes are also
possible across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands.
 
SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions during the next several days across
many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg