Advisories

000
WTPA44 PHFO 021449
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026
 
The rapid intensification of Lowell has continued early this 
morning. The compact hurricane has a circular, 15 n-mi-wide eye 
surrounded by a symmetric ring of deep convection with cloud tops as 
cold as -70 to -80 deg C. This impressive structure has led to an 
increase in the satellite intensity estimates, with JTWC and HFO 
recently providing T6.5/127 kt Dvorak estimates. Meanwhile, the 
latest AiDT and D-MINT objective estimates from CIMSS have climbed 
above 130 kt. Since the satellite presentation continues to improve 
and the eye of Lowell has warmed during the past couple of hours, 
the initial intensity is raised to 135 kt.
 
Lowell will move within conducive large-scale environmental and
oceanic conditions for the next several days. With no signs yet of
the commencement of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), some
additional near-term strengthening is forecast, and Lowell could
reach category 5 intensity later today or tonight. Over the next
several days, the intensity of the hurricane will be modulated by
internal dynamic processes like ERCs. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and remains on the high side of the
latest guidance. There is high confidence that Lowell will remain a
major hurricane through the forecast period.
 
The hurricane is moving westward (270/9 kt). A mid-level ridge over 
the Central Pacific should steer Lowell westward for the next few 
days at a gradually slower forward speed. Only minor southward 
adjustments were made to the early part of the NHC forecast to 
account for current motion trends. An erosion of the steering ridge 
by a mid- to upper-level trough or cutoff low is forecast this 
weekend, which should cause Lowell to slow down further and turn 
sharply northward at days 4-5. The track guidance has shifted 
eastward for this portion of the forecast, and the NHC prediction 
was adjusted to the right of the previous track in response. There 
remains large model spread and above average uncertainty regarding 
the details of this anticipated northward turn, so interests in 
Hawaii should monitor the latest forecast updates.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 13.4N 153.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 13.5N 154.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 13.6N 156.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 13.8N 158.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 13.9N 159.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 13.9N 161.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 14.0N 162.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 14.6N 164.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 164.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart