Advisories

000
WTPA44 PHFO 042039
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

Lowell has strengthened rapidly this morning. The eye of the 
hurricane has become larger and more distinct with multiple 
mesovortices evident in satellite images. In fact, the eye 
temperature has increased significantly to around 20 C. In addition, 
the convection in the eyewall is now notably more symmetric than it 
was earlier. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that 
Lowell is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale, with peak winds around 130 kt. Dropsonde data 
suggests that the minimum pressure is around 926 mb. The initial 
wind radii has been expanded in all quadrants based on the aircraft 
data.
 
Lowell continues to lose some latitude this morning, with the 
initial motion estimated to be 255/6 kt. A general westward motion 
is expected through Saturday as the hurricane remains steered by the 
flow on the southeastern side of a mid-level ridge. On Sunday, the 
steering pattern is expected to change when a mid- to upper-level 
low moves southwestward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands, 
eroding the southern portion of the ridge. This pattern change 
should cause a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast with a 
gradual increase in forward speed, bringing the system close to the 
westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Monday and Monday night. It should 
be noted that predicting where and how sharply Lowell turns is 
challenging as it will depend on the location and amplitude of the 
mid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane's location.  
Overall, the guidance has not changed much this cycle, and the NHC 
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one. This 
prediction is in good agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble 
mean and simple consensus TVCN.
 
Lowell's rapid intensification episode could continue a little
longer since the hurricane has been maintaining a symmetric inner
core while remaining in conducive environmental conditions. Lowell
could regain category 5 intensity later today or tonight if this
intensification trend continues. However, a pronounced increase in
southerly or southwesterly vertical wind shear and progressively
cooler waters should promote a steady weakening trend beginning in
a couple of days. Although there is good confidence that Lowell
will be weakening when it nears the westernmost Hawaiian Islands,
it will very likely still be at or close to major hurricane
strength. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous
one and above the model guidance in the short term.  However, it is
fairly similar to the past few advisories from 72 to 120 h.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it 
moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday 
night. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions 
of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches 
will likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have 
their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local 
officials.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will begin to impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday
afternoon and continue through early next week. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain.
 
3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 13.2N 160.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 13.2N 161.7W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 13.5N 162.8W  145 KT 165 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 14.0N 163.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 15.0N 164.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 16.3N 163.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 18.4N 163.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 23.6N 162.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 27.0N 163.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Evans